主题：【原创】全球熊市的开始：DOW大跌超过400点 -- 倥偬飞人

I am not convinced the bear market has started. There will be a bear market sometime down the road but not this year probably not next year. I will lay out my reasons:

valuation for most of the markets are in line with historical means. Even for market like China, while valuation is high(pe ~30), it is not a bubble(last time when Shanghai market collapsed, it is selling around 70 times earning). Given the strong growth worldwide outside US, fundamental for stocks are still good. Also for US, we are at the end of the tightening cycle. The FED is highly unlikely to raise interest rates aggressively. This spells good for stocks.

Technically the up trend has been broken for most of the indices. But we are not in the down trend yet. The market is testing its support and the support still holds.

Sentimentally, when you see amateurs bragging how they make a killing short stocks and how they have learned their lesson from past bear markets, I feel more relaxed. This is probably not true for Chinese market. Look at how active people are discussing chinese market here.

My guess is we are now in a correction but when the year ends, S&P 500 will make an all time high.