主题：【原创】太平洋战争前的日苏关系日方经纬简介 一 -- 电子赵括

據說史太林在39年8月19日蘇共政治局的講話，解釋為何有蘇德條約的原因。這個講話，早在39年11月見於瑞士的報導。

在英文維基，可找到有關這講話的資料。外链出处

外链出处

史太林的講話重點是戰爭取決於蘇聯是否同意德國併吞波蘭。如果蘇聯反對而與英法合盟的話，德國必會在波蘭問題上退讓。戰爭將被壓下來。但如果德蘇簽定條約，分解波蘭，則英法將會與德國開戰。而蘇聯可坐山觀虎鬥，選擇何時參戰。

史太林還著重講，在和平時，將共產主義帶進西歐是極困難的。但如果有大戰發生，蘇聯這個漁人可得利。故此他的選擇是與德國簽約，一方面買下些和平時間，另外好讓西方通過連年的大戰，筋疲力盡後，蘇聯才選擇參戰的時間。

雖然在這講話是否屬實上仍有爭論，但據分析，這講話的真實性應是較大。下列的分析是我年前存下的，網址現已找不到了。

There is, however, much evidence indicating that Stalin held a speech in which he expressed precisely the ideas that make up the extant versions:

Ever since 1925 Stalin had argued that an imperialistic war would break out and weaken capitalism. This war would lead to a proletarian revolution.1

In a speech to the Central Committee in 1925 Stalin had urged that the U.S.S.R. should enter the coming war, but enter last.2

The Finnish Communist leader Arvo Tuominen, who knew Stalin personally, felt absolutely sure (in 1941) that Stalin could have prevented the World War if he had wanted to.3

The Russian Colonel Grigory Tokaev in 1939 heard lectures by Ambassador Troyanovsky and Major-General Voloshin, both advocating the importance of coercing Germany and the Western Powers to fight each others to the death.4

The American consul in Prague reported that Czech communists had heard similar things in Moscow in 1939.5

Thre are two different versions of the speech, which seems to preclude the possibility of an occasional case of deception by some ill-disposed journalist.

The concise instructions that were supposed to be a consequence of the speech existed long before any version of the speech was published.

In his official “denial” Stalin spoke a lot of peace proposals but did not deny that he had urged for a lengthy war that would exhaust the belligerents.6

Notes:

1. The essential Stalin. Major Theoretical Writings 1905-52. London 1973, pp. 93, 159-61.

2. Stalin, Iosif V., Sochineniya VII, 1947, p.14; Garthoff, Raymond L., Soviet Military Policy.

London 1966, p. 76.

3. Tuominen, Arvo, Neuvostoliitto Leninin perinnön vartijana. Stockholm 1941, pp. 9-13.

4. Tokaev, G.A., Stalin Means War. London 1951, p. 72.

5. Lukes, Igor, Czechoslovakia between Hitler and Stalin. New York 1996, p. 258.

6. Pravda, 30 November 1939, p. 3.

事實上，以我看來，這亦是美國的選擇。據John Toland的書引述Admiral Hart（負責調查珍珠港的海軍上將）回憶與羅斯福的講話。提及太平洋戰爭前的傳言是麥克阿瑟將在42年4月，在菲律賓作好作戰準備一事。羅斯福的答覆是馬歇爾向他保証，菲律寶在41年11月已是預備好了。如果他知道真相的話，他會將日本拖一拖，爭取多些時間！！("If I had known the true situation, I could have babied the Japanese along quite a while longer.")

• 当时英法德国在波兰问题上都在同苏联接触