主题:【文摘】给大家打个预防针,关于外界和网上舆论 -- ataraxi
A: No. Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake. They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future. However based on scientific data, probabilities can be calculated for potential future earthquakes. For example, scientists estimate that over the next 30 years the probability of a major EQ occurring in the San Francisco Bay area is 67% and 60% in Southern California.
The USGS focuses their efforts on the long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards by helping to improve the safety of structures, rather than by trying to accomplish short-term predictions.
[URL=
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/faq.php?categoryID=6&faqID=13]链接[/URL]
这是USGS(美国地震局)的简介。粗体部分回答了您所有的疑问。湾区未来30年内发生地震的概率是67%,您说该不该预警?如果您愿意把这个叫做“中期和长期的角度”上的预测我没意见,只是,能不能告诉我们是未来30年内的哪一年哪一月哪一天?
您知道能迅速找到震源是多么重要吗?唐山大地震3天了还找不到震源在哪里,破坏最严重的地方都找不到,如何救人?
不好意思,这个问题的答复这篇帖子里面也有,该地区的抗震设计是烈度7级(不是震级7级),此次的烈度是10级-11级以上,北京地区的抗震设计是8级,台湾也只有台北101是抗10级,日本地震多发区是8级,您能不能告诉我,台北101在那个地方能不能保证不倒?
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🙂【文摘】对于每一个智商高于零的中国人而言... 颜子 字129 2008-05-16 09:13:35
🙂你错了 ataraxi 字224 2008-05-16 10:40:27
🙂您能解释一下"地震局不能预测地震"这句话吗? 恒光明 字1246 2008-05-16 12:32:14
🙂河里这么多资料,您发文之前找找不行?
🙂这些就是你所说的专业资料吗? 1 恒光明 字12057 2008-05-17 18:47:31
🙂送花! ataraxi 字84 2008-05-20 20:54:23
🙂你不太了解情况,资料太老了 simplyred 字202 2008-05-18 21:24:00
🙂我想这恰恰是这些年来逐渐预测不出地震的原因之一 恒光明 字93 2008-05-18 21:47:18