主题:【原创】忆君长入梦 -- 老叶
Thursday, July 22, 2004
Kirilenko, Randolph, Gasol going for the max
By Chad Ford
ESPN Insider
For those of you who believe that the NBA summer spending spree is about to
end now that almost all of the top free agents are locked up -- think again.
Lost in the midst of the flurry of signings and trades over the past week was
a quiet six-year, $37 million contract extension for Shane Battier.
Battier, the sixth pick in the 2001 draft, will be the first in a long line of
third-year veterans looking to cash in this summer before the current
collective bargaining agreement goes away. Fears that contracts will become
more restrictive, with fewer guaranteed years and smaller max ceilings, along
with fears that the luxury-tax threshold may become smaller, are forcing
agents into action.
"I think it behooves everyone to get something done now," Battier's agent, Lon
Babby, told Insider. "For the player, it may give them their last chance at a
long, guaranteed contract. For teams, it may be their last poker chip to
lock-up a guy they want long term."
"I think players really want the security," agent Marc Cornstein, who
represents Samuel Dalembert, told Insider. "I think, for the teams, there's
some concern about the number of teams that could be far enough under the cap
next season to make a substantial offer."
The Hawks, Bobcats, Bulls, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers, Nets, Blazers, Sonics and
Wizards could all be potentially far enough under the cap next season to make
a max contract offer to a player. However, the Bulls, Warriors, Nets, Sonics
and Wizards could end up using most of that space to extend their own players
before they hit restricted free agency.
Teams have until Oct. 29 to extend the contracts of players picked in the
first round of 2001 draft. Typically, a couple from an eligible draft class
receive max contract extensions, and several others receive healthy six-year
deals.
Last summer, only three players from the class of 2000, Mike Miller, Desmond
Mason and Jamaal Magloire, received long-term extensions. In each case, the
contracts they signed were for slightly more than the mid-level exception.
However, that draft class was considered especially weak. To date only one
player, No. 1 pick Kenyon Martin, has received a max contract out of the
class.
Two summers ago, by way of comparison, three players -- Steve Francis, Baron
Davis and Shawn Marion -- got max extensions. Four others -- Wally Szczerbiak,
Ron Artest, Jonathan Bender and Jeff Foster -- got significant long-term
contracts.
During the summer of 2001, four players received max extensions -- Antawn
Jamison, Vince Carter, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce. Three others -- Jason
Williams, Michael Dickerson and Al Harrington -- garnered long-term deals.
But that's not even the entire story. Several of the players from the draft
classes of 1999 and 1998 held out for richer deals and got them in restricted
free agency after their fourth seasons.
Last summer, 1999 draftees Elton Brand, Richard Hamilton, Lamar Odom, Jason
Terry, Andre Miller, Corey Maggette, James Posey and Kenny Thomas nailed down
long-term deals.
Two years ago, 1998 alumni Mike Bibby, Raef LaFrentz, Larry Hughes, Bonzi
Wells, Matt Harpring and Ricky Davis got their money.
Who's likely to get an extension this fall? Insider did some snooping around
and identified a number of players with a good chance of getting an extension.
For the rest of the class, they'll be looking at restricted free agency next
summer.
Taking it to the max?
Andrei Kirilenko, F, Utah Jazz
Last year's stats: 16.5 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.8 bpg
The skinny: Kirilenko was actually drafted in the class of 1999, but he didn't
start his NBA career until 2001. Kirilenko has emerged as one of the most
versatile players in the game. Last season, he ranked fourth in the league in
the plus/minus stat behind just Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Shaquille
O'Neal. He does a little bit of everything for the Jazz and, at the age of
just 23, continues to improve each season. He even made the All-Star team last
year. He's the Jazz's best rebounder, shot blocker, defensive player and his
offense continues to emerge. Losing him would be devastating to the franchise.
He's the one Utah player with superstar potential. His agent will be looking
for a max-type deal to keep Kirilenko in Utah. Given the fact that GM Kevin
O'Connor paid Carlos Boozer six years, $68 million and Mehmet Okur six years,
$50 million, will he be able to argue?
Zach Randolph, PF, Blazers
Last year's stats: 20.1 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 48 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Randolph was amazingly consistent last season. He ended up ranked
sixth in the league in rebounding and 17th in the league in points last year.
That's not too shabby for a 23-year-old power forward playing significant
minutes for the first time in his career. While the Blazers still have some
concerns about his maturity, there's no question that he's turning into one of
the most devastating low-post scorers in the game. If Kenyon Martin can get
the max averaging 16.7 ppg and 9.5 rpg -- how can you deny Randolph? The
Blazers love him, though they are obsessed with clearing cap room and may wait
until next summer to cut him a check.
Pau Gasol, PF, Grizzlies
Last year's stats: 17.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 48 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Gasol's numbers were slightly down last season, but that had more
to do with Hubie Brown's deep rotation than it had to do with talent. Gasol
continues to make improvements on the court. He's gotten stronger, more
aggressive in the paint and came up big for the Grizzlies in their playoff
series with the Spurs, averaging a team-high 18.5 ppg. The Grizzlies still
have some questions about the 24-year-old Spaniard. He's still not a good
defender and needs to get stronger, but, in another few years, he should be
bulked up enough to play center. When he does, he'll be one of the best in the
game. Given the current market, Gasol, too, is probably a max player, though
that may be unlikely given the Grizzlies' current cap woes. If he got a Carlos
Boozer-type deal, he'd probably be happy.
Still a big deal
Tony Parker, PG, Spurs
Last year's stats: 14.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 45 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Parker's a little tougher to figure. He was magnificent in the
Spurs' first playoff series versus the Grizzlies, averaging 21 ppg and 8 apg.
He cooled off considerably versus the Lakers once they ramped up the intensity
of their defense. But overall, Parker is the best young point guard prospect
in the NBA. He's just 22-years-old, has a championship ring and the ability to
do just about whatever he wants on the court. Given what Steve Nash pulled
down with the Suns, it's not out of the question for Parker to be looking for
a max-type deal. Had he been in this year's free-agent class, the Clippers,
Hawks, Jazz and Bobcats all may have thrown max deals his way based on his
age, potential and experience. Point guard is one of the hardest positions in
the league to fill and Parker's got the chance to be great. With that said,
the Spurs, who are more financially conservative than most, will be reluctant
to pay him that. Coach Gregg Popovich has a love-hate relationship with
Parker. A seven-year, $70 million contract (ie. Mike Bibby money) might be
more realistic if he wants to get locked up now. Otherwise, he'll be one of
the hottest free agents on the market next summer.
Samuel Dalembert, C, Sixers
Last year's stats: 8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 54 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Look past the marginal season numbers to what Dalembert did the
last month of the season, when he was given real minutes. His 12.3 ppg, 12.4
rpg and jaw-dropping 4.4 bpg were down right amazing for a kid who was,
essentially, in his rookie season last year. Dalembert, who just turned 23,
really got his groove on as the season progressed and the Sixers know they
have something special. Teams have been ringing Billy King's phone off the
hook this summer in an attempt to land the 6-foot-11 Haitian. While you can
make all the caveats you want about how raw he is, his history of injuries and
his lack of inexperience, ask yourself . . . if Adonal Foyle can get a
contract starting at $6.5 million and Mehmet Okur can grab one at $6.6 -- what
should Dalemebert's contract look like? He outplayed both of them last year
and he has much more upside. If the Sixers don't pay, someone else will next
summer. Good, young, athletic centers don't come onto the market every day.
Richard Jefferson, SF, Nets
Last year's stats: 18.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 49 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Jefferson is on the verge of becoming a star, and the Nets have to
lock him up this summer to avoid what happened with Kenyon Martin a few weeks
ago. Last summer, the team balked at paying Martin the max and decided to take
their chances in restricted free agency. Martin got a huge offer sheet from
the Nuggets, including a whopping $15 million signing bonus, and the Nets were
forced to agree to a sign-and-trade after they determined they couldn't match.
They can't let the same thing happen to Jefferson. The team has already stated
it wants to build around him. But will Bruce Ratner, who's getting the rep as
a cheapskate, really pay him the cash. Jefferson holds all the leverage here.
The Nets have to re-sign him. Jefferson, on the other hand, is probably better
served looking elsewhere next summer given the decline of the team. It may
cost the team near-max dollars to keep him.
Eddy Curry, C, Bulls
Last year's stats: 14.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 49 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Bulls fans are rolling their eyes right about now. How can Curry,
who has been the definition of inconsistency throughout his short career,
really warrant a big contract extension? He doesn't. But that doesn't change
the fact that most teams see Curry's size, age and ability to score with his
back to the basket and start feeling faint. Even though he doesn't rebound,
doesn't play defense and seems to struggle with his conditioning, teams will
always overpay for a big guy. When the big guy is just 21, 6-foot-11, weighs
285 pounds and can run the floor -- they'll really overpay. Again, look at the
comps. Foyle and Okur both got deals that averaged more than $8 million per
season with smaller numbers than what Curry put up in Chicago last season. In
fact, his numbers in April, 18.5 ppg and 7 rpg, were nearing the impressive
level. The word is Curry, who obviously knows he's in a contract year, is
getting in shape and playing basketball every day this summer. If he blows up,
the Bulls are on the hook for the max. If they lock him up now, maybe a
seven-year, $60 to $65 million contract will get it done.
Mid-level or more?
Kwame Brown, F/C, Wizards
Last year's stats: 10.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 48 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: The former No. 1 pick had his moments last year. He averaged a
career-high 13.7 ppg in January, but slipped off a bit in February and March
despite the fact that his minutes actually went up. Brown is an enigma. He has
the body and talent to be a superstar. Does he have the head and the heart?
The Wizards still aren't sure. The fear, from Washington's side, is that he
blows up this year and they're forced to offer him a huge contract. If they
lock him up now, he'd have to be much more reasonable -- maybe somewhere in
the six years, $50 million range. Brown is gambling too. If he stinks again
this year, his value will begin to plummet.
Joe Johnson, G/F, Suns
Last year's stats: 16.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg, 43 percent shooting from the
field
The skinny: Once Stephon Marbury was sent packing, Johnson took his place as
Phoenix's go-to scorer in the backcourt, and he put up impressive numbers the
rest of the season. He averaged 17.9 ppg, 5 rpg and 5.4 apg after the All-Star
break and started to signs that he could be a future All-Star. So why is he
lumped with the rest of these guys? Two things plague Johnson. One, he's still
very inconsistent. In April alone he had five games in which he shot under 35
percent from the field. The Suns claim that they love him, but the fact that
they signed Quentin Richardson to an offer sheet is telling. One, they think
he'll be looking for much more money than they're willing to pay. Two, they
have some questions about his work ethic and his ability to focus during the
game. If he were willing to agree to Q numbers -- six years, $45 million --
they'd lock him up in heart beat. If he wants considerably more (and there are
signs he does), the Suns will probably try to trade him this summer to a team
more willing to take the financial hit.
Jason Richardson, SG, Warriors
Last year's stats: 18.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 44 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Richardson improved in almost every aspect of his game last
season. He improved his scoring, mid-range shot and willingness to put the
ball on the floor and get to the line. For much of the season, he was the
team's most consistent scoring option. He's an excellent rebounder for a
guard. Here's the problem. There aren't a lot of teams that will pay big money
for a two guard who can't shoot the 3 (28 percent last season) and won't play
good defense. With second-year guard Mickael Pietrus in the fold, it's not
inconceivable that the Warriors will wait until next summer and take their
chances there. Then again, with Dan Fagan representing him, that could turn
out very messy for the Warriors.
Vladimir Radmanovic, F, Sonics
Last year's stats: 12 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 43 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Radmanovic had his best season ever for the Sonics last season,
but the truth is he's playing out of position and wants a change of scenery if
he can get it. Realistically, Radmanovic is worth something above the
mid-level, but given his role in the Sonics' system, they won't see it that
way. Look for his agent to make big demands salary-wise. If the Sonics don't
cave (they probably won't), there will be a strong push to finally get him
traded while there's still a shot at getting some value back in return for
him.
Throw me a bone
Tyson Chandler, F/C, Bulls
Last year's stats: 6.1 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 42 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Back problems kept Chandler on the shelf for much of the season.
When he's healthy, he's shown he can be an aggressive rebounder. However,
offensively he's still very raw. The back thing is also an enormous concern.
Chandler still has great potential, but he's got to stay healthy all season
and improve his offense to get anything more than some mid-level love next
season. Don't look for either side to cut a deal this summer. Chandler wants a
chance to prove himself and earn more cash, and the Bulls want a chance to
trade him if he does. Neither is possible if the two sides come to a contract
agreement.
Troy Murphy, PF, Warriors
Last year's stats: 10 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 44 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: He's coming off a pretty tough year in which a "stress reaction"
in his right ankle limited him to 28 games. The lackluster season was a blow
to Murphy, who put up very solid numbers (11.7 ppg, 10.2 rpg) during his
sophomore season. With Erick Dampier likely out, there will be a great
opportunity for Murphy to redeem himself next season. As it stands now, his
value isn't much higher than the mid-level. If he can duplicate his sophomore
season, however, he too could see a flood of cash roll his direction next
summer.
Jason Collins, C, Nets
Last year's stats: 5.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 42 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: He's been solid for the Nets the past couple of seasons, but still
hasn't broken out the way the Nets or everyone else thought he might. He's a
good back-up center who's been forced into a starting role because of the
Nets' lack of depth. With Serbian center Nenad Kristic coming to New Jersey
this year, his minutes could take a hit. Because of Collins' size and relative
durability, someone will give him a contract. However, the full mid-level is a
stretch at this point.
Jamaal Tinsley, PG, Pacers
Last year's stats: 8.8 ppg, 5.3 apg, 41 percent shooting from the field
The skinny: Tinsley had an up-and-down season for the Pacers. While he
dramatically improved his 3-point shooting, his assist numbers were at an
all-time low and his performance in the playoffs, especially against the
Pistons, left a lot to be desired. The Pacers are still out there looking for
another point guard, which is telling. While he should be able to secure a
nice deal based on comps like Rafer Alston (5 years, $21) and Troy Hudson (6
years, $38 million), it's not a given the Pacers will actually pay him.
Wait until next year: DeSagana Diop, C, Cavs; Brendan Haywood, C, Wizards;
Primoz Brezec, C, Pacers; Kedrick Brown, G/F, Sixers
Around the League
# A Damp free-agent market? With Rasheed Wallace now off the board, Erick
Dampier sits a top Insider's free-agent list. Where will he go? Dampier's
chances of landing on the Knicks took a huge blow on Tuesday when the Warriors
traded for Dale Davis. The Knicks were offering Nazr Mohammed and Othella
Harrington. Now, the Warriors no longer need or want Mohammed. That leaves
only the Hawks left offering him a contract anywhere near what the Knicks were
willing to pay (6 years, $71 million).
Dampier would consider the Hawks, even though they are rebuilding, because
it's closer to his home in Mississippi. It also why he had strong interest in
the Grizzlies. However, the Hawks are currently offering him only a three-year
contract at roughly the same numbers he gave up to become an unrestricted free
agent. They've made it clear they won't overpay, leaving Dampier with three
options. He can either try to convince the Warriors to do a sign-and-trade
with another team, go to the Hawks for three years and pocket roughly $24-$26
million, or go to a contender on a six-year deal for the mid-level and bring
home six years at roughly $37 million.
Given Dampier's age (30) and his history of injuries, he's probably better off
taking the mid-level contract. The Warriors are reluctant to take back any
large salaries at the moment. They talked with the Mavericks and Sixers about
deals that would ship Dampier and one bad contract out for the expiring
contract of either Glenn Robinson or Antoine Walker, but so far talks haven't
led anywhere.
It's unlikely he'll get another huge deal after his contract with the Hawks
expires in three years. Taking the mid-level might be Dampier's best chance of
landing a solid long-term contract with a team that could give him a ring
someday. If he's interested, a number of teams, including the Pacers, Blazers,
Suns and Timberwolves, would show interest.
# Nets still haggling over Shareef: The Nets are still talking to the Blazers
about a trade that would send Shareef Abdur-Rahim to New Jersey for Kerry
Kittles and Aaron Williams. The sticking point, according to a league source,
is draft picks. The Nets are willing to give up a first-rounder, but they want
it to be the Nuggets' pick they acquired in the Kenyon Martin trade.
#
The Blazers, on the other hand, want one of the other two picks the Nets
received in the trade -- either the Sixers' or the Clippers'. So far the Nets
are balking at the proposal.
However, if you're Rod Thorn, trading for Reef may be the only way to calm
Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson at this point. Given how valuable they are to
the team, one first-round pick, when you're hoarding three, may be worth it,
don't you think?
# Isiah: I have mixed feelings about John Paxson's reluctance to ship Jamal
Crawford off to the Knicks. On one hand, I admire him for not giving in to the
ranting and ravings of Isiah Thomas and Crawford's agent, Aaron Goodwin, on
the subject. Paxson doesn't owe them anything. If the trade doesn't work for
the Bulls (and it doesn't according to how Isiah's putting it together), then
he shouldn't pull the trigger.
One the other hand, Paxson may be the only one who can put the rest of us out
of our misery on this whole sordid affair. The New York and Chicago papers are
running daily updates -- usually with Isiah or Goodwin running at the mouth --
about a trade that by all objective accounts seems to be going nowhere.
"I'm still trying to make a deal," Thomas told the Chicago Sun Times. "I'm not
trying to be emotional, not trying to make a name for myself and show somebody
up. I've made a lot of deals already in my previous jobs in building the
Toronto Raptors expansion team, in running that club and coaching the Indiana
Pacers."
Huh? I'm sure that convinced Paxson to pull the trigger Isiah.
# What are the Warriors up to? The Warriors made a solid trade on Tuesday when
they shipped Nick Van Exel to the Blazers for Dale Davis and Dan Dickau. They
killed two birds with one stone in the trade. They found a hard-working,
back-up center for Adonal Foyle, and they got rid of a headache in Van Exel.
#
However, let's not forget that around this time last year, the Warriors were
talking up Van Exel as the savior of the franchise. The trade that sent Antawn
Jamison, Danny Fortson and Jiri Welsch to Dallas for Van Exel turned out to be
a disaster for the Warriors. They essentially swapped Jamison (good player,
bad contract), Fortson (bad player, bad contract) and Welsch (good player,
great contract) for Davis (ancient player, short contract) and Evan Eschmeyer
(injured player, bad contract). Ugh.
That was Chris Mullin's first big trade, and we're willing to give him a
little slack. He did put the Warriors is a better cap position . . . one that
he's hurt, in part, by overpaying for veterans like Adonal Foyle and Derek
Fisher. From the looks of things, Mullin is trying to fill his team with
hard-working, defensive-minded veterans who aren't afraid to lead. Foyle,
Fisher and Davis all fit in that category.
The Warriors will be better defensively next season. They will play hard if
Mike Montgomery has anything to say about it. The problem is that the team
just doesn't have enough talent to compete in the West. I can't find anyone in
the league in love with Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy, the Warriors' best
two offensive options.
I like the idea of emulating what the Pistons and Grizzlies have done with
depth and blue collar-type players. Add Mickael Pietrus, Cliff Robinson and
Troy Murphy to their blue collar core of Foyle, Fisher and Davis, and the
Warriors have plenty of grit. But the Pistons and Grizzlies have got it done,
in part, with some impressive talent and without really overpaying for players
(we'll ignore the Brian Cardinal signing for a second).
What's most troubling about the Warriors' signings this year is the fact that
the money they spent on Fisher and Foyle is close to what they could've gotten
Dampier and Cardinal back for. Given that Dampier and Cardinal are far
superior to the Fisher and Foyle, I don't understand the thinking. It's one
thing to cut cap. It's another to let two players go and spend similar money
on two inferior ones. The Warriors have upgraded a key component of their team
this summer. But they've done by jettisoning off more talented players in
return. There's got to be a fine line between role players and stars on a
team. The Warriors have yet to find it.
As for the Blazers, who knows what they're up to. After reaching incredibly
for Sebastian Telfair in the draft, they're now all but acknowledging the fact
that he'll be nothing more than a bookend at the end of the bench this season.
Van Exel, when he's healthy and his minutes are limited, is still one of the
most explosive scorers in the league. But the team left itself vulnerable in
the middle when it made the trade. Theo Ratliff is the starting, but given his
injury history, do you really want just Vladimir Stepania backing him up?
# It's Snowing in Cleveland: I almost love the Eric Snow-to-Cleveland trade
for the Cavs. Had they kept Carlos Boozer (sorry to rub it in Cavs fans) you
could argue that the Cavs added the last piece of the puzzle for a long,
serious playoff run next spring.
#
Without Boozer, however, the deal doesn't make as much sense. Snow is a very
solid point guard and an upgrade to Jeff McInnis. But he's getting older and
has an expensive five years left on his contract. The fact that the Rockets
balked at taking on his contract despite the fact that they have no point
guard and are making a run at the Finals is telling.
The offseason isn't over for Cleveland, however. The word is that Vin Baker's
in town this week to talk to Jim Paxson. In the history of bad ideas, adding
Baker to replace Boozer is up there with the "Let's take Trajan Langdon over
Corey Maggette or Ron Artest" winner that Paxson came up with in 1999.
A better idea is to work something out with Orlando for Drew Gooden. Gooden
isn't as tough or gritty as Boozer, but he's talented and has shown some
promise at the four. The problem is, the Magic want Tony Battie back in
return. That's not the best trade in the world for the Cavs, especially given
the injury history of Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
The Snow trade is a little more perplexing from the Sixers' point of view. I
understand their rationale. Jim O'Brien loves Willie Green and wants to insert
him in the starting lineup with Allen Iverson. Green, one of the Sixers'
second-round picks last season, has been great in the summer leagues and has a
real knack for scoring. O'Brien believes that his system doesn't need a true
point guard, and has somehow fallen in love with the idea of Iverson and Green
jacking up 45 to 50 shots a night combined. If Glenn Robinson is playing -- or
if they land Antoine Walker -- that's going to borderline on the comical side.
However, the fact that Kevin Ollie's contract runs for four more years means
that the Sixers are getting marginal cap savings by making the trade. Surely
there was something better out there for Snow than Kevin Ollie.
# Pistons strike gold again: Leave it to Pistons president Joe Dumars to
instill some sanity back into the free-agent market. His five-year, $57
million deal with Rasheed Wallace is the most rational contract that's come
along this summer. It's a great deal for the Pistons (given the comps that
were out there) and a good deal for Sheed (given his less-than-stellar
attitude in the past).
- 相关回复 上下关系8
😨奥运大战在即,我军阵前先折一大将 雪个 字58 2004-07-21 21:43:49
🙂是篮球惹的祸 老叶 字35 2004-07-22 18:35:49
😭T-MAC 的扣篮录像 老叶 字91 2004-07-28 18:42:17
about basketball: ESPN Insider article
😮啊?自己多保重吧。 即晴 字0 2004-07-21 18:47:55
非常有创意。老叶现在进入实验主义阶段, 风雨声 字307 2004-07-16 15:08:57
恩,你的提议很不错 老叶 字243 2004-07-16 17:35:50
忆君长入梦后记:多谢河里兄弟姐妹厚爱以及 老叶 字24 2004-07-16 13:16:18