主题：【讨论】新闻评述：铁矿石和定价权 -- 井底望天

中澳的合同内容是中方共出$500亿每年购买澳洲225万吨液化石油气,一直购买20年,总共4500万吨. 文章说这相当于20年按照每吨$1111的平均价购买澳洲的液化石油气. 可问题是:目前的市场价格为每吨$393,而即使按照预期到2013年,液化石油气的价格才是$450一吨. 即使再往后,其价格也才是大概$600一吨.

文章作者实在是奇怪为什么中国人竟然愿意以几乎天价来购买液化石油气. 于是到处试图采访澳方公司负责人,均吃闭门羹. 一名中方官员叫Liu Weijiang, 的只是说该价格是澳方出的,别的啥也不说 "a spokesman for PetroChina in Beijing, said the $50 billion price tag ''came from the Australian side'' .

文章网址 http://business.smh.com.au/business/50b-value-placed-on-china-gas-deal-looks-a-little-stretched-20090819-eqjw.html

文章内容:

$50b value placed on China gas deal looks a little stretchedMathew Murphy

August 20, 2009

DOUBTS have been raised about the legitimacy of the $50 billion figure for the Government's historic gas deal with China. Based on current liquefied natural gas prices and analysts' forecasts of how high they will go, the figure appears optimistic.

Under the deal, struck on Tuesday, ExxonMobil will supply 2.25 million tonnes of LNG a year from its Chevron-operated Gorgon field off the West Australian coast over 20 years - a total of 45 million tonnes. That assumes an average LNG price of $1111 over the length of the deal.

Present LNG prices, according to a recent financial summary from Goldman Sachs JBWere, are about $US322 ($393) a tonne.

According to the Government's own commodities forecaster, ABARE, LNG prices are expected to rise as the oil price increases and are predicted to have an export value of about $450 a tonne by 2013. That would value the PetroChina deal at just over $20 billion - less than half the trumpeted $50 billion.

The resources analyst Adrian Prendergast, of Baillieu's, said his long-term forecasts for LNG would leave the project well short of the $50 billion.

''We are expecting $400 to $500 by 2013 and then a long-term price of $600 per tonne for LNG,'' he said. At $600 a tonne the project is valued at $27 billion.

When BusinessDay contacted ExxonMobil and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson's office to ask how the figure was reached, both sides refused to claim responsibility, saying it had come from the other.

After calls back and forth, an ExxonMobil spokeswoman, Gemma Allman, said the $50 billion was an ExxonMobil figure. She refused to answer any questions about how it could possibly be as high as $50 billion given current or future LNG prices, saying the deal was ''commercial in confidence.''

Liu Weijiang, a spokesman for PetroChina in Beijing, said the $50 billion price tag ''came from the Australian side'' without providing the oil giant's own valuation of the deal.

A spokesman for Mr Ferguson said he had no reason to doubt the authenticity of the figure.

''On all the available information, we believe it is a very reasonable figure and we stand by it,'' he said.

In 2007, Woodside Petroleum agreed to key terms for supplying 2 million to 3 million tonnes of LNG to PetroChina, the same customer as ExxonMobil, in a deal worth about $45 billion, according to Woodside's chief executive, Don Voelte.

That means PetroChina potentially would pay $5 billion less under the Woodside deal to receive more LNG. In its latest production report, Woodside received $345 a tonne for LNG during the June 2009 quarter.