主题：【译文】史蒂芬*罗奇：经济上的娘娘腔男人的供词(1) -- Chieftain

还是让好莱坞来拯救美国的政治吧。加州州长斯瓦辛格很可能是现如今美国政治界最有个性的人物。就好象他好不容易才提高了的演技将终结者的形象烙在了美国人民的意识上一样，他极富表现力的言辞也正在改变着政治风景线。他在共和党全国大会上的演说就是很好的一个例证。他直呼所有对美国经济状况担忧的人为“经济上的娘娘腔男人”，这也为金融界关于经济的激烈辩论添上了新的色彩。不能说我个人对此很在意。但是为公平起见，我认为还是有必要回应一下。

让我们暂时先不谈政治，而是看看以下的事实：从大多数的常规指标来看，这次的经济复苏惊人的疲软。在步入经济上升周期后的十个季度里，美国经济的年实际增长率才3.4%，远低于前六次经济周期的5%的正常水平。非农业部门的雇工增长在同一时期也只有0.1%，这和前六次经济复苏的2.7%的水平是无法相提并论的。实际的周薪和工资收入 ?C 也即衡量经济原生或内在创收能力的要素 ?C 仅仅只上升了0.8%，而远不及前六次经济复苏的3.8%的水平。联邦预算从盈余到2000-2003年间高达国内生产总值6%的赤字已经是失去了控制，这也是推动国民储蓄率降到2003年前期只占国内生产总值0.4%的最低水平的主要原因。由于缺乏国内储蓄，美国必须吸引国外的资金来维系经济增长，这也将贸易赤子推高到国内生产总值5.1%的水平。所有这一切都说明美国经济的复苏是脆弱和极其低质量的。如果我这么说就是一个经济上的娘娘腔男人的话，那我认了。

“经济上的伟男子”则观点迥异。温和的通涨，高生产率还有相对较低的失业率都是他们认为经济强劲的表征。双赤又算什么呢，尤其是它并没有推高短期和长期利率的后果的话。这些伟男子们可是一点都不领日本和中国维系着美国低利率环境的情。美元强势是因为美国强大。就依此类推吧。这些伟男子们将美国经济描绘成非常有韧劲，更不肖说这还是发生在美国的股市泡沫破裂，遭受恐怖分子9.11袭击和大范围的公司治理丑闻之后。不过对于凡此种种，他们从不同寻常的角度来看待美国经济的基本特性：正如州长斯瓦辛格在共和党全国大会上的强调的一样，说到底，这是个信心问题 ?C “对于自由化企业的信心，对于美国人民逆转困境能力的信心…和对于美国经济的信心。”这是直接从布什政府的大哲学思想中借来的。基于信心的分析对于通过传统的经济指标，如GDP增长、就业、创收、国民储蓄和赤字来衡量经济发展状况是不屑一顾的。因为这个美国是大不一样的。

Global: Confessions of an Economic Girlie-Man

Stephen Roach (New York)

Leave it to Hollywood to come to the rescue of American politics. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger could well be the most dynamic personality on the US political scene today. Just as his finely honed skills as an actor served him well in forever imprinting the image of the Terminator on our national conscience, his rhetorical flourishes are now redefining the political arena. His recent speech at the Republican National Convention is a case in point. By depicting those of us who worry about the state of the US economy as “economic girlie-men,” the Governor offered new meaning to the debate that is currently raging in financial markets. Far be it for me to take this characterization personally. But in the interest of fair play, it deserves a response.

Forget about politics -- at least for the moment -- and consider the facts: This economic recovery, by most conventional measures, has been amazingly lousy. Annualized growth in real GDP has averaged 3.4% over the first ten quarters of this upturn, far below the 5% norm of the previous six business cycles. Nonfarm payroll employment is up only 0.1%, on average, over the past ten quarters -- hugely deficient when compared with the 2.7% record of the past six recoveries. Real wage and salary disbursements -- the essence of the economy’s organic, or internal, income-generating capacity -- is up at only a 0.8% average annual rate over the past ten quarters versus the 3.9% norm of the previous six upturns. The federal government budget is out of control, having swung from surplus to deficit by six percentage points of GDP from 2000 to 2003. This was key in pushing the net national saving rate down to its all time low of 0.4% of GNP in early 2003. Lacking in domestic saving, the US has had to import foreign saving in order to keep the economy growing; that has given rise to a record current account deficit of 5.1% of GDP. All this speaks of a vulnerable and exceedingly low-quality recovery in the US. If that makes me an economic girlie boy, so be it.

The “economic macho men” see it very differently. Subdued inflation, high productivity, and relatively low unemployment are all emblematic of what they would call great strength. Nor are twin deficits worth worrying about, especially if they don’t have the immediate consequences of pushing intermediate and longer-term interest rates higher. Little do the macho men know how grateful they are to the Japanese and the Chinese for this break on US interest rates. The dollar is strong because America is strong. And so on. Today’s US economy is also depicted by the macho man as being extraordinarily resilient -- especially in the aftermath of the bursting of the stock market bubble, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and widespread corporate governance scandals. But for many of this ilk, the basic character of today’s US economy is portrayed in a very different light: As Governor Schwarzenegger stressed at the Republican National Convention, ultimately, it’s all about faith -- “faith in free enterprise, faith in the resourcefulness of the American people … and faith in the US economy.” This borrows a page right out of the script of the general philosophy of the Bush Administration. Faith-based analytics have little tolerance for measuring economic progress through the traditional metrics of GDP growth, hiring, income generation, national saving, and deficits. This America is different.

• 【西西河电子期刊】第16期（中）