五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】杂谈全球变暖 -- 快乐是什么

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家园 也许是我太死板?俺觉得问题比较大~

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-2.html

Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), daily temperature (together with precipitation and pressure) data for an increasing number of land stations have also become available, allowing more detailed assessment of extremes (see Section 3.8), as well as potential urban influences on both large-scale temperature averages and microclimate.

没有说怎么处理城市热岛环流的影响【potential urban influences】

These data represent ocean skin temperature (Section 3.2.2.3), not air temperature or SST, and so must be adjusted to match the latter.

这个调整好象是丑闻,不记得在哪看到的,为了证明自己是对的,

都是把数据调整再调整,这个调整过程,对于结果影响非常大,直接关系温度

Despite these improvements, substantial gaps in data coverage remain, especially in the tropics and the SH, particularly Antarctica. These gaps are largest in the 19th century and during the two world wars. Accordingly, advanced interpolation and averaging techniques have been applied when creating global data sets and hemispheric and global averages (Smith and Reynolds, 2005), and advanced techniques have also been used in the estimation of errors (Brohan et al., 2006), both locally and on a global basis (see Appendix 3.B.1).

说白了,还是人为调整/制造【拟合】数据,数据不足,采用插值法产生,这个本身就是有问题的。尤其是非线性数据,插值法误差很大

坦率地讲,无论什么模型,如果基础数据不足,只要愿意,都可以根据需要的结果把基础数据“调整”的很“完美”,关键是这样的模型可靠性如何,精度怎么样

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