五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson

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家园 与大家的猜测相反,西方智库们很多都预测出这次危机

举个例子:(外链出处

Professor Carmen M. Reinhart对墨西哥危机,亚洲危机和这次的金融危机都有过准确的预测。

Her work has helped to inform the understanding of financial crises for over a decade. In the early 1990s, she wrote (with Guillermo Calvo) about the fickleness of capital flows to emerging markets and the likelihood of abrupt reversals--before the Mexican crisis of 1994-1995. Prior to the Asian crisis (1997-1998), she documented (with Graciela Kaminsky) the international historical links between asset price bubbles and banking crises, and how the latter could lead to currency crashes creating a "twin crisis." She identified (with Ken Rogoff) the possibility of severe economic dislocations from the sub-prime crisis in 2007. Her work is frequently featured in the financial press around the world, including The Economist, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. She has appeared in CNN, CSPAN, BBC, and NPR, among others.

危机依然发生,是因为有些利益集团想让危机发生。

无论是战争,还是危机,都是很好的利益重新分配的机会。

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