主题：先顶住不升值，以后再狠狠贬值 -- 陈经

地址：http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/coal.html

原文附后：世界总量9290亿吨，中国占14％，等于1300亿吨。中国近年来煤炭消耗增长迅速，2002年消耗13.8亿吨，2009年消耗30.5亿吨。以这个增长速度（每年增加12％），只需要15年，到2024年就用光所有可采煤炭。煤炭占我国一次能源70％以上，电力生产80％以上，到时候，机器大部分都无法运转了。

World Coal Reserves

Total recoverable reserves of coal around the world are estimated at 929 billion tons—reflecting a current reserves-to-production ratio of 137 (Table 9).21 Historically, estimates of world recoverable coal reserves, although relatively stable, have declined gradually from 1,145 billion tons in 1991 to 1,083 billion tons in 2000 and 929 billion tons in 2006 [42]. The most recent assessment of world coal reserves includes a substantial downward adjustment for India, from 102 billion tons in 2003 to 62 billion tons in 2006—reportedly attributable to better data, which permitted the estimation of recoverable coal reserves as compared with previous estimates of in-place coal reserves. Estimated reserves for OECD Europe of 32 billion tons in the most recent assessment also are substantially lower than the 2003 assessment of 43 billion tons. Much of the downward adjustment for OECD Europe is a result of lower estimates for Poland, Turkey, and the Czech Republic. Poland’s reassessment of estimated recoverable coal reserves from 15 billion tons in 2003 to 8 billion tons in 2006 reflects the use of more restrictive criteria for geologic reliability [43].

Although coal deposits are widely distributed, 80 percent of the world’s recoverable reserves are located in five regions: the United States (28 percent), Russia (19 percent), China (14 percent), other non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (10 percent), and Australia/New Zealand (9 percent). In 2006 those five regions, taken together, produced 4.9 billion tons (95.8 quadrillion Btu) of coal, representing 71 percent (75 percent on a Btu basis) of total world coal production [44]. By rank, anthracite and bituminous coal account for 51 percent of the world’s estimated recoverable coal reserves on a tonnage basis, subbituminous coal accounts for 32 percent, and lignite accounts for 18 percent.

Quality and geological characteristics of coal deposits are important parameters for coal reserves. Coal is a heterogeneous source of energy, with quality (for example, characteristics such as heat, sulfur, and ash content) varying significantly by region and even within individual coal seams. At the top end of the quality spectrum are premium-grade bituminous coals, or coking coals, used to manufacture coke for the steelmaking process. Coking coals produced in the United States have an estimated heat content of 26.3 million Btu per ton and relatively low sulfur content of approximately 0.8 percent by weight [45]. At the other end of the spectrum are reserves of low-Btu lignite. On a Btu basis, lignite reserves show considerable variation. Estimates published by the International Energy Agency for 2006 indicate that the average heat content of lignite in major producing countries varies from a low of 4.5 million Btu per ton in Greece to a high of 12.4 million Btu per ton in Canada [46].