主题:关于中国的高铁网 -- mandman
共:💬10 🌺59
The Guangzhou-Wuhan line would have to carry 5 million passengers a year, about a quarter of the cities’ combined population, just to cover its construction cost at only 3% interest, calculates Wang Xiangsui, director of the strategic research center at the Beijing Aviation and Aeronautics University. The cost-effectiveness and investment return is still questionable, he told the China Commercial Aircraft conference in Shanghai on March 25.
construction cost at only 3% interest
这个值不会随通涨而涨;那么过十年,相对而言,这个 construction cost 只有原来的2/3,如果每年的通涨率是 3%-4%。
还高铁的债,应该把货运的收益也算进去。高铁主要承担客运,老铁路线主要跑货运。没有人规定:只能用高铁线上的收益来还高铁的贷款。因为建了高铁,原来的老铁路线释放了很多运载量,使得货运的收益可以大大提高。
[注]我不是说通涨一定是好事,只是解释一下,计算债务不能算死帐。哪能象前30年那样,什么价都30年不变?!
- 相关回复 上下关系5
🙂这是人类文明一大进步! 2 唵啊吽 字32 2010-05-15 22:15:38
🙂转一篇文章:高铁阴影下的中国航空业 7 mandman 字8508 2010-05-14 12:13:05
🙂说个题外话 xuefei0 字61 2010-05-23 03:49:58
😜通涨是还债的捷径(老美精通此道)
🙂正是噢8马想要的新模式嘛 红霄帐底 字0 2010-05-14 19:08:11