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主题:【讨论】第三次世界大战可能并不远矣 -- aiguille

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家园 No, Euro collapses first

1. All fiat currency nations have the same problem. Slow inflation is a common inherent feature. China is not free from it. Fiat system, a break from gold standard pioneered by Franklin Roosevelt, actually makes the world better and safer.

2. If we give up fiat currency system, there will be global economic contraction and deep job loss--> thus your story sounds very likely.

The current mild slow inflation is a well-tested system rebooting tool. In 1970s, it helped the global economy and it will do the same trick again.

US debt level is exaggerated. Most liabilities are contingent liabilities--coming from medicare promises. America has slowly shifting pension responsibility from public firms and state to individuals. Fiscal trouble from pension side is the lightest in States than other European nations. In continental Europe, that's a ticking time bomb.

America's main trouble is Medicare D. At certain point, it will get a dramatic cut.

WW3 will be great. It will start first in Europe and Asia. Because Europeans are going to lose money printing priviledge attached to reserve currency status and Asians do not have that.

WAR STARTS USUALLY NOT BECAUSE OF HATRED, BUT BECAUSE OF SCARCITY OF RESOURCES FOR a better life.

North Americans can always shut down their doors and live their easy life with rich natural resources there. America and Canada are effectively one nation and Alberta oil is more than enough to support the continent for 100 years.

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