主题：【原创】北非风暴和以色列的军事态势 -- 晨枫

大部分国民过去拍粪饼，现在还是拍粪饼，而我一直不认为拍粪饼代表着很高的生活水准。我们家文革的时候好歹也能用上煤球子的。

印尼苏哈托的时候不能去东方（苏加诺的时候可以，因为苏加诺对西方有幻想。）所以这取决于政治家的弹性。

首创劳动保护的是欧文，英国佬，空想社会主义者。

八小时工作制是美国进步主义运动的最先开花结果，美国进步主义再进化就是社会主义。

第一个建立覆盖全民的社保体系（理论上的，实际搞了许多年才达到）的国家是苏联。

以上这些不否认起源于资本主义国家，但是同样不否认是这些国家的社会主义运动争取来的。

美国不可能坐视日本进入东南亚，因为菲律宾是美国的自留地，日本进入东南亚为的是石油，但是不拿下菲律宾，它的航线侧翼就是空的。所以日本进入东南亚美国是根本利益受到威胁。

当时苏军是看不上匪共的。匪共的实力也明显不如国军。斯大林是个政治家，他不看好土共很正常。

三次战役之后朝战已经差不多明朗化。除了金大胖很少有人能相信能打出来个最终解决了。而这时候苏联援助才实际上大量赶到。

TALIBAN and other insurgent groups and criminal gangs: The Taliban and other insurgent groups and criminal gangs, some of whom were linked to AQ and terrorist sponsors outside the country, control parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan and threaten the stability of the region.[/B]

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Attacks against our troops, NATO allies, and the Afghan government have risen steadily. Taliban insurgents murdered local leaders and attacked Pakistani government outposts in the FATA of Pakistan. Ideological allies of the Taliban conducted frequent attacks in Pakistan‘s Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), particularly in the Swat Valley, and have extended operations in to the Punjab and the capital city of Islamabad. Suicide bombers are increasingly used to target Pakistanis, in addition to conducting cross-border raids on ISAF forces.

为了取得对华战争的胜利，日本认为势必要切断重庆政府的外国资源，日本声称中国军队借由中南半岛取得外国军需物资，以武力令法国当地政府低头后于1940年9月占领越南北部，1941 年4月为改善日美关系日本派遣外交官前往华盛顿特区进行谈判，不过日军在中南半岛的扩张并未停止，7月2日御前会议决定增派部队占领越南南部；这些行动激怒了当时已经在战火中的美国、英国以及流亡的荷兰政府（此时依然控制着印尼殖民地的石油资源），为抑制日本扩张，美国于7月25日冻结日本在美资产，8月 1日对“所有侵略国”进行石油禁运与经济制裁，英国与荷兰同时跟进。对于石油、钢铁、工具母机有70%从美国进口的日本来说这政策极为致命，除非日本将军队撤出中南半岛与中国，否则日本国内储存的石油资源将会耗尽。日本对此条件难以接受，并称这三国和中国（America Britain China Dutch）为ABCD包围网。日本决定与英美荷等欧美国家开战，进攻东南亚争夺该地资源以维持国家自给自足的经济，持续对中国的战争。

Relations with the US

Photograph of a briefing of Japanese pilots before the attack A briefing of Japanese pilots before the attack The policy increased in urgency as relations with the US sank further. Historically, Japan had relied on America to supply many natural and industrial resources. Increasingly alarmed by Japanese aggression, however, America allowed a commercial treaty dating from 1911 to lapse in January 1940. In July it followed up by embargoing scrap iron and aviation fuel. Things got worse in September when Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy. It was now a formal member of the Axis alliance fighting the European War.

... Japan knew that a full-scale invasion of South-east Asia would prompt war with America.

This posed real problems. Although officially neutral, there was no doubt where American sympathies lay. President Franklin D. Roosevelt had already strained the sinews of neutrality by supplying Britain with money and arms under the 'lend-lease' agreement. The Tripartite Pact meant that supplies to Japan would indirectly be helping Italy and Germany; further embargoes followed.

For Japan, embroiled in a long war with China, these were disastrous. Considering its very survival under threat, Japan intensified the search for a permanent alternative. The most obvious target was South-east Asia, rich in minerals and oil. German success in Europe in 1940 had orphaned French and Dutch colonies in the region and they became the focus of Japanese attention.

While occupying French Indochina in July 1941, Japan knew that a full-scale invasion of South-east Asia would prompt war with America. It needed a mechanism to buy itself sufficient time and space to conquer successfully crucial targets like the Philippines, Burma and Malaya. The attack on Pearl Harbor was that mechanism; merely a means to an end. By destroying its Pacific Fleet, Japan expected to remove America from the Pacific equation for long enough to allow it to secure the resources it needed so desperately and hoped to crush American morale sufficiently to prompt Roosevelt to sue for peace.

An ill-prepared America

Photograph showing President Roosevelt President Roosevelt declares war on Japan following the attack at Pearl Harbor. With war so widely expected, why was America so woefully ill-prepared? Rumours that began in the war are still hanging around, well past their sell-by date, fuelled only by revisionist historians and conspiracy cranks. They claim Roosevelt was itching for war with Japan but was constrained by US neutrality, so needed a solid reason to fight. Hence they accuse him of suppressing prior knowledge of the attack, or of provoking it to enable America to enter the war by the back door. Some even say that the attack on Pearl Harbor was deliberately engineered by a crypto-communist president guilty of high treason.

In 1941 America was not ready for war.

It doesn't add up. In 1941 America was not ready for war. With US forces queuing for arms alongside Britain and Russia, Roosevelt knew he needed more time to build America's military capacity. If war was to come, he wanted Japan to be seen to be the aggressor, but Roosevelt was in no hurry.

Furthermore, he saw Germany as America's main enemy. This 'Europe first' strategy was affirmed with Churchill at the Arcadia conference in late December 1941. Roosevelt had already pushed neutrality to the limit and had assigned warships to accompany convoys in the Atlantic. War with Germany was only a matter of time: why choose to fight another with Japan? Even when European conflict came, it did so only on Hitler's invitation after he gratuitously declared war.