主题：【原创】数字来说话--为子玉兄的美元理论做注解 -- 种植园土

emerging ones. Newly industrialized ones (such as India or China) and pure resource sellers, such as Brazil/Russia.

I focus on one key link: demand.

Europe is an industrialized block. If Europe repeated the same fate as Asia did in late 1990s, demand for oil, industrial raw materials will fall by not a small margin.

Europe is China's key export market(No.1). With a collapsed banking sytem and dramatic credit contraction, China will also shut down half of its export industries. Further hit to commodity demand.

Then Brazil and some other resource exporters will experience another 2008. Or early 1990s after the US long recession again?

History is not far away--I remember in 1998, after the Asia Economic Crisis, the oil price fell to $10 per barrel. Then Russia had debt crisis... and then it came back to haunt US stock market.

I am not sure about oil price this time, but I am quite sure about the trend of industrial metals.

One problem with those resource-rich nations: money comes too easily and boom comes too fast and most people can not look forward for 10 years. People party like nuts when everything looks so good.

Then cycle reverses and commodity industries have severe overcapacity--it is a weird industry: slow to add capacity and slow to reduce capacity.

This drama happened again and again in the last 200 years.

Examples: oil industry in Pennsylvania in mid-19th century in America (US oil was once 1cent per barrel--I am not kidding); commodity boom and bust in 1970s--then Latin American debt crisis;

The list is long.......

Analysis of India--please refer to Ji Di Wang Tian's posts.