主题：【原创】从过去的龙年看未来的中国（连载） -- diamond

I am glad we have people like u making some comments, in a way, economic topics is like political/military topics, it becomes somehow modern soap opera, everybody has its strategic or Oscar level director view points to present, which is very normal, no offenses to anybody in a public forum like this, and I type English a lot of faster.

1.

中国基本面:

林毅夫: china 8%是潜在增长率, (my adding) with TG's 人定胜天不惜代价 political economic model extremely speaking, that is not too far fetched, vs USA 潜在增长率 expectation reduced to GDP growth rate of 2% by tea party, red neck, republican & democratic 4-ever political fighting

2.

中国现实面:

still,

"去年3季度资金外流+人民币贬值预期" scared TG big time;

why? as you said, as a business you have all kinds of cash expenses such as payroll on top of all the "must pay now" items, everyday, where and to whom do you sell your products to yesterday and today to get money in? can you tell your employees that they all should believe in 中国基本面 story, hanging on there, take a pay cut, working for next year's sales recovery/boom/bonus?

3.

global 市场预期

are businesses going to make business investment and hire more people based on 林毅夫: china 8%是潜在增长率 presentations?

去年3季度资金外流， 2012 4季度央行花了多大的力气才把市场预期给扭转过来, and with 2011年（前年）的三季度的教训 in particular.

given the 中国基本面 vs us 基本面: foreign companies leaving china in a significantly way is unlikely, but to make them spend money and investment is a totally different thing.

if 市场预期 is bullish, profits to be made in china, businesses men would swarm into china like the way they did a few years ago, when "china made" products have not fully flooded the world yet, when US consumers were still using their credit cards shopping like there was no tomorrow, that was past, bills are to be paid, for everybody.

for TG it is even more challenging, if businesses can not make sales and make profit, how can TG collect tax from them? and making things worse, TG may have to help a tons of businesses financially, and where is money? we all know TG has a "big family to feed/please" with a lot of checks to write almost everyday;

those extremely impressive (thanks to the presentation author, "diamond", very impressive) beautiful transportation and infrastructure all have at least one common purpose: people can move around and do businesses and economic transactions, likely with a goal for most of them to be hired by some companies , but who would hire them and to do what?

if that is not happening, how to pay the debt due for building those projects?

this is obviously a global problem in a way, as Marx long pointed out, and much more challenging to TG than any other ruling political elite outside of china;

in a way, US tea party, red neck, republican are "correct": why US government should run deficit and build up infrastructures like TG has been doing, to produce what? there is no miracle solution to fix the fundamental problem described by Marx's on capital: when capitalism is fully globalized, the world market is completely saturated, capitalists can't find place to invest, labor forces can't find jobs, extremely speaking.

4.

TG is a lonely political superman in this world, and because of that, other governments have much more rooms to work around, because they are elected, and those angry unemployed mass can do no nothing dramatic, except for voting out the current politicians and voting in an another group of politicians next time, no big deal, not a regime change;

TG is different, TG is supposed to be GOD and in many way TG is paid like GOD in china, and now, it is time for TG to do the challenging if not impossible job of a GOD: keep GDP grow at 7%, keep factory running/projects going 4 ever no matter what, so the unemployment is not getting out of control, so TG can feed its huge and increasingly greedy 党政军机器;

To be a lonely man is not that great sometimes, and having coming this far, what else TG can do?

always hedge with 后手/战略预备队, never stand out there alone by yourself playing totally naked, even for a political superman such as TG?

5.

what to do?

TG/孫悟空 to play under 山寨版西方民主自由, for survival as china's ruling political regime?

---copied from internet--

my comment: basically it is a 山寨版西方民主自由 in china, to get TG=孫悟空, still managing china in a 1.5 party system like that of japan, under a "white" cover, why not?

-----------

疯传刘亚洲内部讲话：“8^2”平反，薄熙来无罪释放！

刘亚洲是前中国国家主席、全国政协主席李先念的女婿，刘亚洲的代表作品有《金门战役检讨》、《信念与道德》、《甲申再祭》、《大国策》等等。这些作品及其言论在网络上引起了很大的争议。有人认为《甲申再祭》是“鲜明的反汉反民族，替满清殖民者入侵中原’之张目的作品”。刘亚洲自称“愿做自由思想的殉道者”，但有人认为“实则侮辱和贬低汉民族的逆向种族主义者”。

值得注意的是，刘亚洲曾被一些“异议人士”用署名“刘亚洲”、真假混杂的文章捧为中共未来民主化的“希望之星”。而事实是刘亚洲在2013年发表“坚守神圣的党性”的文章，强调共产党人要依靠信仰让党性发出光芒，强调共产党人要共产党人“随时要准备为真理而献身。”“要有不同于一般人的追求。”。