主题：两难的道路越来越狭窄 -- zhuhit

1.

共军没有退路, "强渡长江"=a must, 辽沈战役打不下去了.

2.

共军"外战外行, 内战内行", HK mess is just an another case;

共军"外战外行": 忽悠(headfakes)战， 实战， 基本上分不清,百战百败, period.

but 共军 always survives, one of reasons=共军"内战内行".

and I think 共军 top knows that, that is why all these Chinese media's 国际战略， 蓝天大海 model=BS.

3.

the ALGO of 共军"内战内行" is "毛林共识模型", likely still working inside mainland china, but it is facing a 成本高涨 issue now, HK mess is going to make it worse.

中共国内政治出问题， 可能性很小, but never say never.

Chairman X has been in charge of TG's HK affairs since 2007, HK is his baby, now it is becoming a little wolf, sneaking into Chairman Xs' otherwise beautiful and powerful office.

how he is going to get this little wolf under control?

4.

美军亚太围堵 tgchina

at this point, Uncle Sam is very blunt to Russian and tgchina: it is not about 普世制度 vs Marxism any more, it is all about Uncle Sam as a sole market maker of today's global capitalism.

if you guys want to play "my" game, then I am the boss, period. and in front of my "office",

you guys have to give up your military power, period.

of course, whether Uncle Sam can make it is an another issue.

in tgchina's case: Mao fxxked uncle sam pretty badly in Korea and Vietnam, and TG had "stolen" a lot of money from Unlce Sam post 911 crisis.

from Uncle Sam's point of view: Uncle TG has to pay back Uncle Sam somehow, or it is hard to do business again between the two.

the way chairman X handles HK: he is kind of weak, just like his red gen II buddies, and just like their fathers, in terms of ALGO power, and TG represents the political elite (the only social elite) of Chinese nation, a nation with very little ALGO power, if any, due to its lack of physics and math, and its lack of interacting with global heatbath in china's 5k years of history.

a basically 近亲繁殖 issue， 缺乏和外界信息能量交换, and still feeling great although trapped inside 爱因斯坦电梯, now with that 爱因斯坦电梯 remodeled by 马克思主义毛主义 and 改革开放's huge dollar piling up.

in that sense, 共军没有退路, "强渡长江", TG has to make it, for Chinese nation to move forward.

I think, that more than likely, and after all said and done, 共军 will make it.