五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:关于希腊危机,请教几个基本问题 -- 南宫长万

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家园 我的看法

楼下的很多讨论完全是空对空,不考虑一些基本的事实。

为什么希腊五年前债务危机的时候不赖账,还了五年债以后倒要赖账了?

When the IMF, European and ECB bailouts began in 2010, 310 billion had been lent to the Greek government by reckless banks and the wider European financial sector. Since then, the ‘Troika’ of the IMF, EU and European Central Bank have lent 252 billion to the Greek government.[1] Of this, 34.5 billion of the bailout money was used to pay for various ‘sweeteners’ to get the private sector to accept the 2012 debt restructuring. 48.2 billion was used to bailout Greek banks following the restructuring, which did not discriminate between Greek and foreign private lenders. 149.2 billion has been spent on paying the original debts and interest from reckless lenders. This means less than 10% of the money has reached the people of Greece.

Today the Greek government debt is still 317 billion. However, now 247.8 billion – 78% of the debt – is owed to the ‘Troika’ of the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank, ie, public institutions primarily in the EU but also across the world. The bailouts have been for the European financial sector, whilst passing the debt from being owed to the private sector, to the public sector.

2010年欠3100亿欧元,现在欠3170亿欧元,当中希腊还还了1492亿欧元,可见利率之高。在这五年里面,希腊的经济负增长,失业率28%,年轻人的失业率大于60%。这就是希腊赖账的民意基础。让老百姓节衣缩食还债可以,但你要给个盼头。如果债越还越多,日子越过越苦就难怪希腊老百姓要赖帐了。

那么希腊现在左翼政府究竟是不是要赖账呢?是也不是,他们要的是债务减免和短债换长债。退出欧元区和全民公投都是给自己在极为不利的情况下给谈判加点筹码。事实上欧洲许多国家甚至包括德国都已经愿意考虑减免债务,只是对减免的比例和减免债务与经济改革孰先孰后有争执。

那么希腊政府为什么认为自己谈判能成功呢?因为如果希腊被逼出欧元区对欧元区国家经济的影响要远大于以减免希腊债务为基础进行债务重组。

那么欧洲尤其德国为什么比五年前强硬呢?因为希腊五年前欠的是欧洲各大银行的债,不还债会在欧元区造成金融海啸。现在希腊欠的是欧洲各国政府,欧洲中央银行和国际货币基金的钱,不还债对欧洲金融系统冲击有限。而且南欧的那几个国家都眼巴巴的看着呢,如果给希腊减免,那几个国家的左翼政党马上统统上台重新开始债务谈判,这才是德国最害怕的地方。德国在欧元区债务危机里得利最大,所以最不愿意把吃到嘴里的再吐出去,法国的态度就更积极些。

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