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主题:【原创】难道利比亚也要变?中东预测之二 -- 种植园土

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                  • 家园 你out了。这个不是殖民主义,是伟大的国际主义

                    这个不是殖民主义,是伟大的国际主义

                    利比亚没有啥工业,也不可能搞自己的工业。中国把他们的油买来,然后用便宜的价格,把物美价廉的产品给广大利比亚人民送去,而不是像殖民主义那样,卖些高价不实用的东西,鸦片啥的,让利B鸭人民充分享受现代文明带来的好处,是多么的pussy呀,多么伟大的国际主义精神呀。

                    时代不同了。我们应该顺应时代的召唤,给广大地球人民送去现代的产品,让他们也享受现代文明的成果。

                  • 家园 最大的问题在于开这个先例

                    以后东南亚和非洲拉美还敢让我们的公司过去么,这不是为出兵提前制造借口么?

                    • 家园 以后谁不让我们公司去

                      这也是例子。

                      道义就是确认对强者的利益的认同,是手段不是目的。美国到处侵略,世界各国都欢迎美式先进管理来接管,不欢迎的就打。

                    • 家园 那他们也得天天动乱天天给我们有机可乘啊

                      缅甸不防中国吗?越南不防中国吗?哪个非洲国家不防中国?美国全世界干涉没听说有谁不想和美国做生意的,只有担心自己被美国制裁的份。你看我们这两年多了那么多钞票,这国际地位影响力是不是火箭似的往上冲?你这是多虑了。

                      • 家园 是撤,不是进,这是战略收缩了。
                        • 家园 情色水担心的是我们出兵利比亚维和
                          • 家园 出兵维和也是撤。看来,收缩回来,配合老大,是主旋律。
                            • 家园 新出炉的分析文章

                              China to stay a low-key gambler in Middle East

                              * China has growing energy stakes and business ties

                              * But lacks means and will to take on strong political role

                              * Economic expectations may increase pressures

                              By Chris Buckley

                              BEIJING, March 1(Reuters) - Even with Middle Eastern tumult tearing down governments and pushing up oil prices, China will stay a restrained regional player, reluctant to gamble a growing pile of economic chips for uncertain political gains.

                              The Middle East is one part of the world where giddy talk about China converting its mercantile strength and energy needs into diplomatic activism runs up against ingrained Chinese caution and deep-rooted U.S. dominance.

                              The weekend brought a telling signal of China's approach.

                              China briskly dropped its traditional caveats about "non-interference" in other nations' domestic problems to back U.N. Security Council sanctions on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and his closest supporters.

                              "China's big bet is on maintaining comity with the United States," said John Garver, a professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta who studies China's ties with the Middle East and nearby regions.

                              China wants to avoid messy entanglements with often rival Middle East countries and has no appetite for turning the regional upheaval into a point of confrontation with the United States, said Yin Gang, an expert on the region at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank in Beijing.

                              "Chinese military and ideological influence doesn't amount to anything that the West has to worry about. China shows no signs of seeking to expand that influence in a major way," said Yin.

                              "China will remain focused on doing business in the Middle East after the region settles down," he said.

                              China will focus on buying oil and gas, selling manufactured goods, and sometimes acting as a diplomatic spoiler to protect energy interests, especially against possible sanctions on Iran, and hedge against U.S. influence.

                              But it will leave guarding the shipping lanes vital for oil to the United States.

                              Beijing will also want to ensure Islamic countries that have overthrown authoritarian governments do not become more sympathetic to the ethnic Uighur Muslim minority in China's far west Xinjiang region, the site of bloody ethnic unrest in 2009.

                              China's energy stakes in the Middle East could eventually draw it into a more assertive role there, and longer-term even a firm naval presence, building on its forays into anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden, say some analysts.

                              But that day is far off.

                              "Middle Eastern authoritarian regimes that survive the upheaval -- especially Saudi Arabia -- may well look upon China as a more reliable supporter than the U.S.," said Garver, in emailed answers to questions. China is already Saudi Arabia's biggest oil customer.

                              "But the problem is that China is simply not prepared, materially or psychologically, to meet the security needs of those countries."

                              STICKING TO BUSINESS

                              The scale of China's commercial links across the Middle East and north Africa is clear in the tens of thousands of Chinese workers fleeing Libya. Chinese building, energy, and trading companies have been expanding throughout the region, sometimes in places too low-paying or hostile for Western companies.

                              Chinese trade with Libya grew to $6.6 billion last year, a rise of 27 percent on 2009 levels, according to Chinese statistics. China's trade with Egypt grew by 19.1 percent.

                              In many Arab countries, China is "viewed positively in part due to either the backlash against European colonial powers or perceived American intervention", said Ben Simpfendorfer, managing director of China Insider, a Hong Kong-based consultancy, who specialises on China-Middle East ties.

                              Above all, there is oil. About half of China's crude imports last year came from the Middle East and North Africa, according to Chinese data. China wants to diversify supplies, but Arab countries and Iran hold so much of global reserves that there will be no escaping heavy purchases from there.

                              Middle Eastern countries that have overthrown authoritarian governments are unlikely to dwell on China's reluctance to condemn their fallen leaders, said John Calabrese, a scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

                              "To the extent that they need customers for their commodities and foreign direct investment in their economies, memories of China's position (or lack of one) in the political upheaval could prove short," he said in emailed comments.

                              Some Chinese scholars, former diplomats and military officers have urged Beijing to secure its energy stake by becoming more assertive in the Middle East, pushing against U.S. influence and building firmer friendships with Arab countries.

                              Certainly, wariness of U.S. intentions runs deep in China's ruling circles, and that has surely been magnified by suspicion that Washington backs calls for copy-cat protests against one-party rule in Chinese cities. Police have smothered any efforts to act on those calls.

                              But China's diplomatic line appears more nuanced. In a recent briefing, a senior foreign policy official steered clear of conspiracy views for the Middle Eastern unrest, instead citing economic malaise and tardy reforms.

                              Some aloofness from Middle Eastern politics suits China, which has no desire to be pulled deep into regional disputes, especially between Israel and the Palestinians, said a Western diplomat in Beijing who closely follows Middle Eastern affairs.

                              "Policy-makers would be scared to make big moves in the Middle East and get stuck in some quagmire," he said. He spoke on condition his name was not used. "Even if they recognise a strategic opportunity, they don't really have the instruments."

                              China may find it harder to stay entirely above the messy Middle Eastern fray as its economic interests and international profile grow.

                              If mishandled, Chinese exports and labour could become a source of friction, especially with new governments striving to create more jobs for their own young people, said Simpfendorfer.

                              "It has provided cheap consumer goods to the region, but can it provide jobs? ... That will be critical going forward." (Additional reporting by Wee Sui-Lee; Editing by Robert Birsel)

                              你昨天讲的国内政治代价是指我们不能仿照卡扎菲一样向游行示威群众开枪吗?


                              本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
                              • 家园 您这提问角度,怎么回答都是罪呀。

                                “深挖洞,广积粮,不称霸”。这里的老大,指的是MD。

                                • 家园 呵呵 只是对这个政治代价比较疑惑 配合MD是必须的啦

                                  要不然搞不好会什么都没有。美第六舰队已向利比亚沿海出发了

                                  The United States, whose Sixth Fleet operates out of Italy, said it was moving U.S. naval and air forces closer to Libya and working on contingency plans, including humanitarian assistance. Analysts said military action against Gaddafi was unlikely.
                                  有没有可能中美联手进行人道救援活动?

                                  • 家园 最远的可能性也只能在联合国框架下,否则就是政治自杀
                                    • 家园 奥巴马已经打电话给加拿大总理 绕一圈后估计也会打给老胡

                                      到时候就看老胡怎么表明“立场”了。当然,要是不打的话就有可能表明美欧想撇开中国了。

                                      关键是利比亚现在谁也不进攻谁,就在那僵持着,搞的我几个网站翻来覆去地找消息愣是没发现动静,感情上校当年的“革命”也是世界一奇,兵不血刃地就当了统治者。搞不好双方就这样一直僵持下去,然后在突然的时候表示和解,搞的全世界掉眼镜让五大国的所有假设和期望全部落空也不是没有可能。这不,查韦斯已经宣布要去利比亚进行调解了。

                                      当然,不管中国有机会也好没机会也好介入也好不介入也好,想办法把印度挤开是首位的,否则他的劳力更便宜,对石油和资源也同样饥渴。

                                      • 家园 你我平常人不在局中,只能看到输入输出,不懂算法,茶余饭后

                                        可以,真当回事,就纯属看电影的冲台上去帮忙了。即便是专家,也只能根据大量的历史路径、各种明暗材料,特别是已方是明的,来举对策,两跟一抹黑的,只能做两件事,第一,听党的话,第二,听良心的话。

                                        要说荼余饭后,我还是这个意见:撤,就是撤;先管好家里的事,家门口的事,贵点贱点,不如先省点。

                                        时候没到,实力没到,家里的事又没安顿好,该忍还得忍。攘外必先安内。

                                        • 家园 收藏了 要铭记于心 看来这键盘政治局也不好当啊 劳心劳力

                                          马的,这主要怪利比亚人,全世界都在那边等着,五角大楼都枕戈待旦的,它就是打不起来。这他妈的简直比等手术室还让人操心。你说革命也得有个革命的样子内战也得有个内战的样子不是,这静悄悄的就知道抢劫外籍劳工也太不讲职业道德了是不是。其次要怪美国媒体,标题一个比一个醒目,内容净是不着边的讲其它国家的动荡形势讲人道主义危机,可看了半天,利比亚打了没有呢,没有,只有疑似地听到了枪声,但记者睡觉的地方又是怎么样的出奇安静,你说折腾人不折腾人。以后除非迫不得已我是再不跟绿教的打交道了,革命打仗都这效率,生活更可想而知。

                                          • 家园 普通人谈政治、谈国家国际大事,可归于几类

                                            1-解闷;2-显摆;3-找理由, 骂天骂地,赞天赞地都是一个意思,所以我不行不怪我;我偷我杀我贪总有理;4-钓鱼。5-职业就是分析来分析去,找素材,做体验。(这是工作)

                                            我是第1种,有时第3种。

                                            政治和国际关系,对普通人的影响,绝对是非常有限的,我说有限的意思是,跟空气和地震对我们的影响是一样的。除非你在道中,那才能参与放毒或者爆破,那是国家力量、政党力量、帮派力量干的事,都是以正义之名,替天行道。商业-政治-外交-军事,步步升级,平常人就玩第1级够了,想要趋利避害,靠正常的商业行为即可,这就是市场化的好处,大家都能玩一点,不要动不动玩得天昏地暗的。

                                            树欲静而风不止,国弱积贫受人欺,这就是没办法,人不犯我我不犯人,这就是阶级仇,民族恨来了,得道多助,失道寡助,普通人,该你动时由不得你不动。

                                            玩过火是有罪的,动乱和战争不是好玩的,对每一个活生生的人、家庭都血淋淋的,真正经历过动乱和战争的人,从来不愿意战争再来。

                                            政治、军事冲突各方表现给普通人看时,也是演戏:什么谁谁谁开第一枪什么的,这是演给平民看的,这说明,什么是好,什么是不好,其实,普世是有共同的准则的,唯贪婪、恐惧破坏之。

                                            综上,商业、政治、外交、战争,都是有道义的,我坚信我们的民族、国家就是有道义的,所以我们不能把自己的未来,寄托在其它民族的灾难上。

                                            其实,我个人最喜欢的就是:给我打你的理由,不然,下不得手。

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