主题：【原创】巴基斯坦要是倒下…… -- 晨枫
如果没有巴基斯坦方面的合作，怎么封起这个包围圈呢？
是接近邊境，但並不在邊境上。
Tora Bora (Pashto: تورا بورا, “black dust” ) is a cave complex situated in the White Mountains (Safed Koh) of eastern Afghanistan ( 34°07′N, 70°13′E), in the Pachir Wa Agam District of Nangarhar province, approximately 50km west of the Khyber Pass and 10km north of the border of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.
During the US invasion of Afghanistan it was one of the last strongholds of the Taliban. As the suspected hide-out of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, it was the theatre in December 2001 for the Battle of Tora Bora.
當年只要在通往巴基斯坦的路上空降特種兵。基地組織已被包了餃子。
但美國與基地組織是symbiosis的關係，沒了Al Queda，美國再用甚麼借口在中亞駐兵？
老毛子正在风头上，属于势力扩张时期。如果尼克松知道苏联那么快就解体也不会跑北京来。
塔利班逃跑时有几个美国大兵在阿富汗地面上？
阿富汗那种地形要多少军队才能形成严密的包围网？
有新闻讲，中国陆军和空军已经到了俄国，参加上合六国反恐军演。主要参加者是中国和俄国军队。
當時塔利班已將亡。
但核心的阿蓋達份子包括拉登在內已知藏在鄰近阿巴邊境的Tora Bora內。
Tora Bora並不是大範圍。接近巴基斯坦。這些餘下的阿蓋達份子是其核心。擊破及殲滅之應該是「反恐」戰的最高目標。而這亦是最佳機會。而在美國付款的北方聯盟軍隊亦已從阿境向Tora Bora進發。
這些核心份子的唯一生路是逃向巴基斯坦。而鄰近阿富汗山區的巴基斯坦軍閥一向都是巴基斯坦的頭痛問題。在這情況下，如果讓這些阿蓋達份子逃向巴境，只會讓他們可以死灰復燃及茁壯。
但奇怪地當年在通向巴基斯坦那重要的峽口，並無任何美軍以完成這個包圍網。
這些核心的阿蓋達份子包括拉登在內，就在12月初大部份徒步地「短征」向巴基斯坦出逃。
美國事後宣稱他們不知拉登及其核心份子在那裏。但從這事後至今，漏出來的情報顯示並不是如此。美方是明確知道拉登及其死黨在Tora Bora。而拉登藏匿在此，亦不是甚麼大秘密。這是當時美國報紙的報導。
The hunt for Osama bin Laden may be narrowing to a network of caves near the village of Tora Bora, in Afghanistan's eastern White Mountains. Mr. Bin Laden has been seen in the last four days, spending his days in caves and moving around on horseback by night, according to local intelligence reports.
下面的鏈接是New York Times整理出當時的大慨情況。當然美國高層心中想甚麼，這是最大機密。但為何Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis 的請求會被拒。這是甚麼原因？
A number of American officers were now convinced that this was about to happen at Tora Bora, too.
One of them was Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis, the commander of some 4,000 marines who had arrived in the Afghan theater by now. Mattis, along with another officer with whom I spoke, was convinced that with these numbers he could have surrounded and sealed off bin Laden's lair, as well as deployed troops to the most sensitive portions of the largely unpatrolled border with Pakistan. He argued strongly that he should be permitted to proceed to the Tora Bora caves. The general was turned down. An American intelligence official told me that the Bush administration later concluded that the refusal of Centcom to dispatch the marines - along with their failure to commit U.S. ground forces to Afghanistan generally - was the gravest error of the war.
......
Tora Bora was the one time after the 9/11 attacks when United States operatives were confident they knew precisely where Osama bin Laden was and could have captured or killed him. Some have argued that it was Washington's last chance; others say that although it will be considerably more difficult now, bin Laden is not beyond our reach. But the stakes are considerably higher than they were nearly four years ago, and terrain and political sensibilities are far more our natural enemies now.
游击队是挡不住的。否则苏联也不会十年消灭不了阿富汗游击队。
这件事不可能弄出个假馅子来。
中间夹不夹自己的私活不影响大局，水至清则无鱼么，老大不会管的。
“现在韩国的军事实力实际上已经高于朝鲜，为什么韩国还要让美国驻军，防的是谁你还看不出来？”
虽然南的实力强于北，但发动战争的选择权在北－－一是因为北穷南富，打起来南的绝对损失还是大于北，此所谓光脚的不怕穿鞋的；二是虽然没有条约，但中国不允许任何外部势力部署在靠近中国边境的地方的立场是谁都要考虑的，所以南有实力也不能主动开打；三是南既要建设又送了首都（40％以上的国家实力和人口）在北的大炮射程之内做人质，对真打其实是想也不敢想，所以只好拉住美吓唬北不要动手，如此而已。
南前几任拼命想和平演变其实很对，不过今年来了个傻瓜玩大发了，正下不来台呢。
看看中亚、海湾、中东、北非就能知道了。总之，除了东北亚和中北美以外（美国的经济和安全需要），美国需要世界上其他地区出现紧张局势
美国佬倒了塔利班就会统一阿富汗，他就从反抗者变成了当权者，行为方式就会受到很多约束。它以前统治的时候不也是内部吵吵炸佛像可还是禁毒品的，现在可好，阿富汗成最大鸦片生产国了。
Brzezinski
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-KJCMWcoms
Why Parkistan is important.
Interesting thought to say the least.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MouUJNG8f2k&feature=related