主题:【原创】即使没有文革,中国经济也不会提前进入第二世界 -- 葡萄
除了经济上的支持,真想不出别的。
勒紧裤带采取攻势也是很累的,而且对舵手要求太高,一步走错后果立竿见影,这个活儿一般人干不来。换个思路虽然后遗症很大,但是大都是用来贻害子孙的,短期有一定把握可以控制。这是内。
而且国际形势也在变,70年代末,整个非洲基本都独立了,而且经过两次石油危机,亚非拉兄弟需要大笔大笔的美元现金进口能源,投资搞建设,我们是拿不出那么多现金的。接下来是沃尔克冲击,利率超过20%,大家伙儿就都掉进债务泥潭了。这是外。
内外因素加起来,导致换了人之后确实很难搞,于是干脆变修了。
最近在看津巴布韦,发现穆加贝这个人虽然能力稍有不足,但总体还是不错的。立场站得稳,遇到危机的应对也有章法,可惜实力不济,被人家连续打击了几十年,生生把津元弄成了金圆券。
给你个连接
http://www.cchere.com/article/3559301
里面提到,很多事情其实已经联系在一起。后面不管发生什么都不可避免相互影响相互关联。对你来说,最重要的是,做好眼前能做的,抓住眼前能做好的,自然会有有心人。不要赌什么大势,而你始终要记得一件事后面的都好办:不管到最后怎么办,总是要有人来建设这个国家的。
但凡触及西方殖民宗主国利益的,在冷战里很少没有遇到政变的。
你提到津巴布韦,我说点细节。当年,南非宣布全面战争的时期,号称在南罗德尼亚(就是今天的津巴布韦)游击队来一个灭一个。但是,作为国家之间的政治交换。美国人硬逼南非白人政府撤军,并且把政权交给穆加贝。尼克松文集里更直截了当的写道:为了美国最大利益,津巴布韦一定只能交给中国支持的游击队,而绝对不能交给苏联支持的游击队。
所谓核心利益,从来都是你死我活的。存不得半点幻想。自己双手乞讨来得,随时都会被人收回去。你以为这个独立自主,是不需要付出代价的么,就和这里许多人以为那样的我有钱什么不可以买???
就是这句,有背叛阶级利益之个人,无背叛阶级利益之阶级。对于这句话,你的注释越来越多了。
靠民粹上去的民选政府,我还真没有从这个角度考虑过。想必是表面上独立自主,但外来干涉力量总是能一路绿灯。
在美国的计划书里,我国应该也是这种独立自主的国家,在《中美通商航海条约》指导下运作,为他们行使现在日本承担的工作。一旦有所异动,国际组织部立即撤职查办。
回头倒是可以把巴西这种国家联系起来分析分析。
链接
http://www.cchere.com/article/3549309
在这里如果抛开对毛的评价。我拿我今天讨论的话来继续展开。这个展开就是,其实在1960年代到1985年之前,世界后发国家一直有拉美奇迹和东亚模式的争论。这个如果你们阅读改开早期中国经济学界的争论,这个当时世界经济学者热议的话题在中国也不乏争论。当然我们今天可以从历史实践中看到两种模式谁胜谁败。但是,我们不能忽视的是,在巴西经济欣欣向荣的1960年代初,也是巴西实行进口替代经济模式最快速的时代。当时,巴西民选政府在被美国支持的军人推翻前,他们选择的进口替代就是工业国有化。而在巴西军政府政变成功的当夜,美国伯利恒公司和巴西军政府签署了第一份经济协议就是:巴西出口的矿石海外定价权不归于巴西国有企业淡水河谷公司。同时美国政府和巴西政府签署的另一个至今影响巴西发展的至关重要的协定就是:无论巴西地方政府和巴西私人企业借贷多少外债,巴西联邦政府为最后的债务承担者。这就可以解释,为了屡次巴西债务危机后巴西联邦政府要为地方政府与私营业主承受超贷资本的买单。那也可以解释了,现在巴西政府为什么要用超过政府预算55%的开支偿还旧债然后借贷新债来维持巴西政府开支。
我记得卡斯特罗曾经写过文章,就在那个《总司令的思考》里面,说卢拉来古巴见卡斯特罗,说到外债问题,卢拉就说巴西现在已经不欠巴黎俱乐部的债了。卡斯特罗对卢拉的执政非常欣赏。
不过看到这个要命的外债协定,巴西头上那顶即将崛起的大国帽子还是要一直戴下去呀。难道卡斯特罗也被忽悠了?
如果你把2008对应1929,
那么四年后,即2012年,大约会有类似1933年的事件发生:
A third banking panic occurs in March. Roosevelt declares a Bank Holiday; closes financial institutions to stop a run on banks.
Alarmed by Roosevelt's plan to redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor, a group of millionaire businessmen, led by the Du Pont and J.P. Morgan empires, plans to overthrow Roosevelt with a military coup and install a fascist government. The businessmen try to recruit General Smedley Butler, promising him an army of 500,000, unlimited financial backing and generous media spin control. The plot is foiled when Butler reports it to Congress. (More)
Congress authorizes creation of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration, the Civilian Conservation Corps, the Farm Credit Administration, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Emergency Relief Administration, the National Recovery Administration, the Public Works Administration and the Tennessee Valley Authority. (More)
Congress passes the Emergency Banking Bill, the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, the Farm Credit Act, the National Industrial Recovery Act and the Truth-in-Securities Act. (More)
U.S. goes off the gold standard.
In July's Reichstag elections, the Nazis won the largest number of seats, but not a majority. No coalition government could be formed, and once again elections were called. Again the results were inconclusive.
In January, the centrists entered into a coalition with Hitler, making him the new Prime Minister of Germany. In February, the Reichstag burned down, and Hitler charged the fire had been the work of the Communists. He arrested all the Communist members of the parliament. Elections held a week later gave the Nazis only 44 percent of the votes. With the Communists in prison, however, Hitler was able to get the Reichstag to pass the Enabling Act. This made Hitler a dictator, removed Jews and other "undesirables" from all position of power and dissolved the Reichstag. Europe had entered into a dark era.
1933 Dachau Established - The Nazis rounded up all potential adversaries, arresting tens of thousands of opponents and Jews. There was no place to put them in jail, so the first of many concentration camps was opened at Dachau.
1933 Japan Leaves Leagues of Nations -(3/27/33) The League of Nations received a report from its Commission of Inquiry convened under the Earl of Lytton. The Commission found that Japanese action could not be justified as an act of self-defense. Furthermore, the report stated that the creation of Manchukuo did not result from a "genuine and spontaneous independence movement." The League adopted the American policy of non-recognition of any conquest. The result: the Japanese announced that they were withdrawing from the League.
1933 New Deal Begun -(3/4/33) The inauguration of Roosevelt as President brought with it the "New Deal," which saw the creation of a multitude of government agencies and activities to combat the Depression. These measures included large–scale work programs for the unemployed, and full–scale government projects.
1933 Western Hemisphere Agreement -(10/10/33) The nations of the Western Hemisphere entered into an agreement in which they renounced aggression and use of force in the Western Hemisphere. The agreement marked the beginning of reconciliation between the nations of the Americas and the United States, which had intervened many times in the internal politicy affairs of the South America.
简单来说,1933年是一个相当关键转折点。基本上二战和美元与黄金脱钩这两件大事的趋势已经很明朗化了。在1929年,除了少数人,大部分的老百姓是绝对不会想象到:1。世界经济的运转脱离黄金,2。世界发生大战。
太阳底下没有新鲜事。
人家距离能源近,人家会说英语,人家民主,人家是世界宠儿,人家不怕小寒期,人家人口都快超过中国了,人家没有计划生育不担心老龄化。
人家还站着我们的领土,那块地据说雨水不错,可以耕作。
其实最早的LM2500早就装在我海军驱逐舰上了,因为后面禁运,从此断档。这次充其量也就是美国发现国内同级别该造的快造出来了,于是可以小小地开发一把捞点钱了,毕竟美货综合质量还是非常过硬的。