主题：【原创】别话8：2010新春夜话：串说最近的新闻几句 -- 葡萄

所以有赤子之心可以看到关怀与理想。

而厚黑者则可以看到残暴冷酷权力欲。

太祖一生纵横，人世间再无抗手。

上下千年，惜秦皇汉武，略输文采；唐宗宋祖，稍逊风骚。一代天骄，成吉思汗，只识弯弓射大雕。俱往矣，数风流人物，还看今朝。

一是美圆的货币地位问题,而是对敏感地区的动作.南美那里,中国也未必见得高歌一路.而巴基斯坦这个关键点还是有问题的.如果金正日今年下台,那将会出现东亚中美再协调利益的事情.但总的来说.美元地位是美国最重要的事情,而国土安全是中国最重要的问题.

中国会爆发的地点一是新疆,估计是夏天,另一个还是缅甸.而巴基斯坦仍然不明朗.

传说外交口的要不惜一切代价支持美国获得美圆的新地位.无条件支持美国的行动.而以国内行政和安全部门则要求今年中国上热点地区和问题上使用强力手段维护国家安全.这两点是中国今年国内人士内政以及外交的重重之重.

在有关方面,特别是欧洲,希望美圆的地位下降,关键是中国的态度.

在非洲那里,各方今年的争夺更厉害.而中国方面,有些人就希望在这些关键地区让美国人发挥作用,甚至一些人认为中国应该在美国问题上执行美国的意志.

国内方面,杭州书记被换,说明的是资本派和党派摊牌的时候到了.而地方政府的行为在今年将达到疯狂的地步.如果地方上发生的事情万一造成导火索将是麻烦.

党儿们估计利用毛神话来争取一下舆论上的好处,所以毛估计是今年最热的东西.

其实,非洲是各方,特别是欧美资本解决危机的唯一出路.而美洲则是美国或者中国的出路所在.要是正面上看.利用一些合作去解决大家的利益平衡,或者是好的.但要是继续无条件去支持美圆,为美圆无条件地提高购买保证那就是无可救药的事情.

民工荒的出现,不是转型,而是通涨带来的后果.去年的生活指数和过年这段时间比.差别很多.所以廉价的劳动力也会有觉醒的时候.所以,血泪工厂日子不多了.没血泪工厂,中国拿什么保证美圆的购买力?所以,一个关键的年份,手段就要有新的东西了.

depreciation is different from average nation's currency depreciation: there is serious implication on capital outflows.

The first global reserve currency was GB pound: its financial elites tried all means to defend a strong currency in the pre-1914 empire era.

Most people just repeat the standard answer from the textbook--but they do not understand that different conclusions apply in different settings. Ke Zhou Que Jian.

Let's short Euro market now. It is the beginning of the end of Euro.

export.

Here the key: capital massive outflows will expose all kinds of financial/social problems in Europe. Keep in mind, Europe will have to resort to stringent fiscal/monetary policies to entice foreign capital--this will depress real economic activities in return(thus social unrest) and slowly expose its Eastern European problem.

Euroland is already between a rock and a hard place. American financiers and gradually all bankers around the world will attack the European financial system.

德国对pigs问题的态度，--Germany could do nothing except some lip service. Keep in mind, the constitutional court of Germany is very powerful. The German gov. could do little constitutionally and politically. EU is effectively a divided land and now the division will be more obvious.

Germany wanted more austerity in Greece--it is not possible under the current social situation in Greece. Greeks wants free money from Germans and Frenchmen, but voters of both nations have already shown their middle-finger.

Now is typically a prisoner's dilemma: cooperation is win-win, but nobody can agree on the cost division; take-care-of-one-self is lose-lose, but will be the final outcome.

American vultures bet it will be a lose-lose game in Europe.

Of course, pull-down of the European financial system will inevitably haunt US companies and then US capital market at later stages. But now it is more and more possible that a GLOBAL ATTACK on Euroland is to come soon.

del

http://realtime.zaobao.com/2010/02/100226_49.shtml

现在多有党委一把手兼的吧。

估计要下也要到两会上改选之后了。

总算下手了

一方面宣示自己的近海利益，主要是石油。一方面是给要对咱们进行石油封锁的回应。因为我们自己的市场够大，一封锁就不定又封锁出一个毛泽东出来。

del

• 【原创】别话8：2010新春夜话：串说最近的新闻几句