主题：牛派大师Tobin Smith怎么说 -- 倥偬飞人

Now let's take a breath. Understand that there are at least hundreds of thousands of Americans who are facing an ugly six- to 12-month future because they got into these toxic mortgages. But, let's not try to connect the dots that aren't there. Let's not assume that this somehow infects the rest of the mortgage business, that it infects the economy, or employment.

We're currently at a 4.5% unemployment rate. Maybe we're going up to a 5% unemployment rate -- but that's tops.

The late 1980s and early 1990s is the last time we truly had a real estate recession -- right now, we have a real estate building recession. But, you know what? That means going down from 1.5 million homes to about 1.2 million. That is not a depression, that's a recession. We have pulled back about 15%-20% -- so we're back to normal.

If the medical care industry were to go down, then we'd be talking. If the technology industry were to go like it did in 2000, that would be enough to bring down the economy. This subprime business is clearly not going to do that.

So, let's not make hasty decisions, and let's not go crazy by selling all our stocks, going to cash and getting into a bunker because subprime mortgages are going to take the economy down. The math just doesn't add up.

I know I've talked to you about it before, but I think you needed to hear it again, because you're going to keep hearing nothing but bad news and more bad news. Hang in there guys, and don't let it get to you.