主题：今日不卖空GM，更待何时？ -- 倥偬飞人

如果問題只局限於小部份人，那當然不會救市。但如果那只是冰山一角，有機會觸發更大的問題，那就不容他們不救市。正如當年LTCM一樣。

看來這事件有機會擴大。

The United States faces a severe credit crunch as mounting losses on risky forms of debt catch up with the banks and force them to curb lending and call in existing loans, according to a report by Lombard Street Research.

US property writer Paul Muolo described the Bearn Stearns crisis as the “subprime Chernobyl”, saying the bank had created a “cone of silence”.

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還有的是這警告。當然對不少人來說，這都只不過是狼來了的聲音。

"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and Southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank.

The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.

"Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said.

The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity.

"The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and "massive investments" in heavy industry.

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