主题：【原创】奔向复苏或者奔向危机的2007 -- 葡萄

The inflation numbers probably understate the degree of overheating. When demand outpaces supply in an open economy it is more likely to show up in a current-account deficit than in inflation. India's deficit widened to more than 3% of GDP in the three months to September—a huge swing from a surplus of almost 4% in the first half of 2004. And the true gap between domestic demand and supply is even bigger. Yaga Venugopal Reddy, the RBI'S governor, recently drew attention to how India's current-account deficit is larger once you exclude the money sent home by Indians abroad. These remittances do not reflect domestic demand or supply, but are more like a capital inflow. Excluding workers' remittances, India's deficit is running close to 5% of GDP (see chart 2)—larger than the equivalent deficit during India's balance-of-payments crisis in the early 1990s.

　　通胀数据可能还不足说明经济过热的程度。一个开放经济体的需要增速超过供给增速时，其表象更可能显现在经常帐户赤字方面，而非通胀水平方面。印度的经常帐户赤字在去年九月前三个月增至大于GDP3%的水平，而2004年上半年经常帐户有GDP4%的盈余，这是一项很大的改变。国内需求与供给的真实差距其实可能更大。印度储备银行行长Yaga Venugopal Reddy最近注意到，如果把海外印度人汇回国的钱款扣除，印度经常帐户赤字更大。这些汇款既不属于国内需求，也不属于国内供给，更象是流入资本。扣除汇款，印度的经常帐户赤字已近GDP的5%－－已经大于1990年代早期印度的国际收支危机中赤字数额。

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