主题：【原创】奔向复苏或者奔向危机的2007 -- 葡萄

除了subprime, 还有Alt-A, 其它象option ARM, interest only, negative amortization等更麻烦. 而且房地产市场已经走弱, 以后的情况还需观察.

目前公开披露收影响的有New Century Financial, American Home Mortgage, Sowood Capital, Basis Capital, Bear Sterns, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs. 但这可能只是开始. 请看,

Lenders made an estimated $581 billion in option ARM loans during 2005 and 2006 while doling out nearly $1.4 trillion in interest-only ARMs, according to LoanPerformance.

Last year, negative amortization loans accounted for 9.9 percent, or $350 billion, of all mortgages nationwide, up from just 0.4 percent as recently as 2003, according to LoanPerformance.

Nearly 18 percent of the first mortgages originated last year went to borrowers with no equity in the property (i.e. no down payment), up from 5 percent in 2002, according to an analysis by First American CoreLogic, a research firm affiliated with LoanPerformance.

So far, less than 4 percent of the option and interest-only ARMs are delinquent, well below the 14 percent rate for the subprime market, where about $1.5 trillion in home loans are still outstanding, according to the most recent data from the research firm First American LoanPerformance.

But there is still reason to be alarmed because the trouble with option and interest-only ARMs still appears to be in its early stages. Many industry observers suspect the biggest problems will emerge during the next 16 months as shoddily underwritten ARMs made near the real estate market's peak in 2005 and 2006 climb to higher interest rates.

如果数据准确的话, 这些2005和2006年的房贷有不少就是嘀哒作响的定时炸弹呢.

问题不是在一天内造成的, 也不会在一天内爆发后在一天内结束.