主题：【老拙侃股票101】第48周汇报 ——11个月浮盈104% -- 老拙

A lot of January inflation has been blamed on the effect of the recent weather crisis, but I believe that much of the weather-related price increases didn’t show up in January and are more likely to show up in February. I should also point out that some Chinese analysts are warning that certain industries whose prices have been frozen (or for whom price increases are subject to approval) may have concealed the true extent of price increases, so the CPI number may actually understate inflation. At any rate, according to the press, Deutsche Bank and Goldman are warning that inflation may go as high as 8-10% in February and March.

Not surprisingly the analyst community is split on will-they-or-won’t-they. Some are expecting a rapid return to interest rate hikes, reserve hikes, and tougher lending constraints, while others think that the authorities are unlikely to move before March or April, until we can get the first set of economic numbers uncontaminated by the effects of the weather crisis and the Spring Festival, and after we have a better sense of whether or not the US economy is likely to slow enough to affect the Chinese economy in a significant way