主题：【原创】馒头与黄金 -- 范适安

最近忙,一直没时间来西西河,也没有看兄台的大作.形势很不乐观,北美的通货膨胀已经是事实,最近两周超市内面包的价格上涨了75%,有电台的主持人说$10/个的面包将会成为现实.原油价格一度触及$112/桶,天然气也从谷底的$5多涨到$10,翻了一番.对我从事的油气行业,这似乎是利好消息.可通货膨胀的幅度很可能吞噬掉所有的利好.今天收到的email如下:

...

Please see the email string below. The speculation is that the price of steel is going to make a big jump in the next 12 months. In the order of 30%.

We need to protect ourselves one way or another. The first choice is probably an escalation clause to cover any increases. If this will not fly then we will need to allow for a price increase on all steel – this means shells and heads – plus structural steel of course.

I will talk to the guys in the US and find out what they are doing for an escalation clause – wording that is. I will get back to you.

...

"I am concerned about steel pricing (structural, vessels and piping) on long delivery projects (estimate to actual we have to pay due to time lag). Speculation is that steel could increase by up to 30% in the next 12 months.

Vessels and piping would be difficult to pre-purchase but structural may be possible.

We have options:

- Do nothing, take the hit to our gross margin if the price goes up (not good)

- Escalation clause in our proposal (this would protect us on structural, vessels and piping). We have done this before but may be difficult to get accepted with XXXXX clients.

- Pre-purchase as much material as possible at the beginning of the project (this would limit exposure but hit us on cash flow). It may be better to pre-purchase at least the structural and have the contract terms of payment reflect this. I believe most clients would understand this. The issue is we would still be exposed to vessels and piping."

狼已经来了.