主题：12/19/2009 Market View -- 宁子

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 44.93; -2.41

VXN: 43.5; -2.53

VXO: 45.94; -5.37

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; -0.08

NASDAQ

Stats: +11.95 points (+0.77%) to close at 1564.32

Volume: 2.737B (+33.61%). Volume jumped well above average on the modest point gain, but it was due to expiration. A very quiet week leading up to Friday, and thus the volume surge as positions were rolled.

Up Volume: 1.523B (+1.04B)

Down Volume: 1.058B (-505.461M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.04 to 1. Opposite of Wednesday, breadth was negative as the index posted a gain. Large caps were on the move Friday on NASDAQ.

Previous Session: Decliners led 1.63 to 1

New Highs: 7 (-6)

New Lows: 108 (+39)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

A quiet end to the week that started slow, zoomed on Tuesday, then idled laterally the rest of the way. The 50 day SMA (1579) stopped each low volume attempt to move higher. NASDAQ has made a couple of higher lows, a higher high, and something of a higher high this past week. Made it on the close but still has the early December high to get through (1603) and then of course the 50 day EMA (1631).

SOX (+1.38%) enjoyed a strong move but then gave most of it back Thursday after a series of downgrades of some big names. Nonetheless the sector remains in decent shape with the early leaders making orderly pullbacks to support (e.g. BRCM). Still looking for something from the chips even though several pundits have proclaimed them dead.

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg

SP500/NYSE

Stats: +2.6 points (+0.29%) to close at 887.88

NYSE Volume: 2.42B (+75.06%). Big volume here as well, aided by expiration and the S&P rebalance of some of its indices. Big volume and SP500 when nowhere. If it wasn't expiration we would be pretty psyched about the volume spike and no movement. The oil spring coiling. As it is, well, just a big volume expiration in a rather low volume market.

Up Volume: 1.388B (+1.055B)

Down Volume: 1.005B (-33.676M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.78 to 1. The small caps were the big boost. Good.

Previous Session: Decliners led 1.39 to 1

New Highs: 27 (-7)

New Lows: 89 (+11)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

Good surge Tuesday, but it came nowhere near the 50 day EMA (928). SP500 tested the early December high (918.57) but slipped to close at the 10 and 18 day EMA. That also put it below the early October closing low at 899. Dicey area with a lot of former highs and lows that many pundits are very eager to point out. Of course if resistance always held then there would be no recovery rallies . . . ever. Nice quiet lateral action over support. Higher lows, a higher high, and in position to surge higher once more. Like the odds for a breakout to another higher high, but as noted above, two short weeks are not going to give us a very good look at any strong volume.

SP600 (+1.62%) led the market again though the index closed well off its high after tapping near the 50 day EMA (267.34). SP600, SP400, SOX are the indices that have made two higher lows and two higher highs. The children shall lead.

SP600 Chart: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.JPEG

SP400 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP400.jpeg

DJ30

The Dow is the only index on the week that challenged the 50 day EMA (8953), but it really made no attempt to get through this next resistance as it sold right back down to 8500 support after tapping at it. Similar to SP500 the Dow is bouncing up and down in a relatively narrow range, showing good price/volume action. Would like to see a breakout over the 50 day EMA, but with a couple of holiday shortened, light volume weeks, even if it does make the break it won't mean a whole lot. It will need to show it can hang onto the gains in the new year when everyone shows up once more.

Stats: -25.88 points (-0.3%) to close at 8579.11

VOLUME: 550M shares Friday versus 274M shares Thursday. Big expiration volume. The only other solid trade on the week was the Wednesday rally that pushed volume to average.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg