主题:12/22/2009 Market View -- 宁子
After hours GM had its rating cut to C something from C something. Okay, business stinks and the company is in jeopardy. I think we get it. The toilet-hugging price pattern pretty much indicates investors understand the situation, TARP funds or no TARP funds. TXT (everything industrial) lowered its guidance and announced 2200 job cuts after the bell as well. And the beat goes on.
Economic news starts back up with the final negative Q3 GDP reading. Non-existing home sales and no new home sales are out, along with poor Michigan sentiment. As you note from my descriptions, I am not expecting any major changes in the path of the economic data. It is simply too early for any change in the data. The market is just now trying to move higher, and it has yet to really show it means business.
Yes there are some great moves in progress and we have made some solid money off the bounces, but there has to be another major breakthrough to the upside soon. DJ30 and DJ30 have put in a couple of attempts at the next resistance and both times faded. The first was a higher high; great. Now it is time to make the next break higher and take out that resistance.
Tough to do it during a stretch of two back to back holiday shortened weeks, at least a move with the kind of volume that means anything. At this juncture, however, I think most investors would happily take a light volume melt higher through resistance if some of the leadership stocks put on a decent volume display as they broke higher.
Many stocks tested Monday and recovered some lost ground. There were quite a few, however, that could not get up with the rest of the market. This is an important test for the nascent rally as you want to see the upside bias prevail in the absence of any serious volume in the market. If it cannot return and stocks start to break near support once more we are not going to wait around too long to see the final scene. If we get out and have to get back in on a rebound, okay. There are still enough solid patterns to hold and continue the move, but there are also several that are getting borderline. If they cannot hold we close them and go holiday shopping. If they do hold we move in on a rebound and make some more scratch to . . . spend on holiday shopping. Hey, have to get the old economy going again, right?
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1532.35
Resistance:
The 18 day EMA at 1536
1536 is the late November 2008 peak
1542 is the early October 2008 low
The 10 day EMA is 1543
1565 is the second low in October 2008
1579 is the 50 day SMA that stalled NASDAQ last week
1603 is the December peak
1620 from the early 2001 low
The 50 day EMA at 1627
1644 from August 2003
1752 from 2004
1782 from August 2004
1786 is the November 2008 high
1846 is the 90 day SMA
Support:
1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low
1499.21 is the 2008 closing low
1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.
1428 is the November 2008 low
1398 is the early December 2008 low
1387 is the 2001 low
1295 is the November 2008 low
1253 is the March 2003 low on the test of the rally off the 2002 bear market low
1108 is the 2002 low
S&P 500: Closed at 871.63
Resistance:
The 18 day EMA at 882
The 10 day EMA at 884
889 is an interim 2002 peak
896 is the late November 2008 peak
899 is the early October closing low
919 is the early December peak
The 50 day EMA at 926
965 is the 2003 consolidation low
995 from June 2003 consolidation peak
1008 is the November 2008 peak
1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.
Support:
866 is the second October 2008 low
853 is the July 2002 low
848 is the October 2008 closing low
839 is the early October 2008 low
815 is the early December 2008 low
818 is the November 2008 low
800 is the March 2003 post bottom low
768 is the 2002 bear market low
741 is the November 2008 low
650 on the top and 625 on the bottom of a 7 month range in 1996
475 from 1994 where the market moved laterally for the entire year.
Dow: Closed at 8519.69
Resistance:
8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low
8626 from December 2002
The 18 day EMA at 8633
The 10 day EMA at 8626
The 50 day SMA at 8702 stopped the Dow on the prior bounce
8829 is the late November 2008 peak
8934 is the December closing high
The 50 day EMA at 8936
8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation
9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation
9323 From June 2003 peak
9575 from September 2003, May 2001
9654 is the November 2008 peak
Support:
8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.
8141 is the early December low
8197 was the second October 2008 low
8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.
7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.
7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.
7702 is the July 2002 low
7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low
7449 is the November 2008 low
7282 is the October 2002 low
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
December 23 - Tuesday
Q3 Chain Deflator-Final (8:30): 4.2% expected, 4.2% prior
GDP-Final, Q3 (8:30): -0.5% expected, -0.5% prior
Existing Home Sales, November (10:00): 4.93 expected, 4.98 prior
Mich Sentiment-Rev. , December (10:00): 58.6 expected, NA prior
New Home Sales, November (10:00): 420K expected, 433K prior
December 24 - Wednesday
Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 575K
November Durable Orders (8:30): -3.1% expected, -6.2% prior
Person Income, November (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, November (8:30): -0.8% expected, -1.0% prior
Crude oil inventories (10:30): 525K prior
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