主题：1/8/2009 Market View -- 宁子

The past couple of sessions there is a pessimism about the market's ability to hold the current move off of the lows. As discussed Wednesday, the move is not a blast higher that shot all of the ammo in a week, but an orderly, steady progression of gains, tests to higher lows, gains to higher highs, tests, etc. That is the kind of move that has staying power, but such modest moves compared to the violent selloff through November has many believing this move doesn't have any inherent strength since there is no rip back to the upside.

With the nature of the credit issues and resultant economic slowdowns, a rip-roaring recovery is not realistic. But that does not take away from this move's technical underpinnings and the leadership. It is often the case that recovery rallies are dismissed as weak bounces when they are not flashy and have frequent albeit orderly tests. There is a holdover skepticism after the harsh selling as no rally is viewed as a true recovery. Same thing in early 2003 as that test showed perfect price/volume action and growing leadership. We were there in early 2003, and while this shares some of the same characteristics, it is no early 2003. Not yet at least. The market rallied nicely off that October low and then came the test. This move is more of the initial move off the low, and this pause is another orderly pause in what we think will be a continuing move higher. We only hope there will be an early 2003-like test after a further solid run higher on this recovery.

Maybe we are all wet behind the ears and this is a pipsqueak mini rally in an ongoing bear market. With the leadership we see and the technical action, however, we are willing to put money to work in the belief it will continue from this point.

That leaves a lot riding on the action Friday after the jobs report. The market looks as if it has built in an appreciation of how bad the jobs report will be and is in position to continue the move. There are many good stocks still in position to rally higher yet again. We even put more money to work Thursday as stocks tested support and then rebounded, looking like early movers in a rebound to come. That is what the leadership does.

Thus we will continue looking for a return to the upside after the jobs report. Maybe it does not come Friday, maybe it does. We have positions we are in set up to move and we have plays that are ready to show us buys if we get the nod from the market.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1617.01

Resistance:

1620 from the early 2001 low

1644 from August 2003

The 90 day SMA at 1746

1752 from 2004

1782 from August 2004

1786 is the November 2008 high. Key level.

1948 is the early October 2008 gap down level

Support:

The 50 day EMA at 1611

1603 is the December peak

The 10 day EMA is 1593

The 18 day EMA at 1574

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1554 is the 50 day SMA

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1499.21 is the 2008 closing low

1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.

1428 is the November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1295 is the November 2008 low

S&P 500: Closed at 909.73

Resistance:

The 50 day EMA at 917

919 is the early December peak

965 is the 2003 consolidation low

The 90 day SMA at 984

995 from June 2003 consolidation peak

1008 is the November 2008 peak

1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.

Support:

The 10 day EMA at 906

899 is the early October closing low

The 18 day EMA at 898

896 is the late November 2008 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

866 is the second October 2008 low

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

839 is the early October 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the November 2008 low

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

741 is the November 2008 low

Dow: Closed at 8742.46

Resistance:

The 10 day EMA at 8775

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day EMA at 8864

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation

9323 From June 2003 peak

The 90 day SMA at 9353

9575 from September 2003, May 2001

9654 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

The 18 day EMA at 8723

The 50 day SMA at 8677

8626 from December 2002

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.

8141 is the early December low

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.

7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.

7702 is the July 2002 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 low

7282 is the October 2002 low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

January 5 - Monday

November Construction Spending (10:00): -0.6% actual versus -1.4% expected, -1.2% prior

January 6 - Tuesday

November Factory Orders (10:00): -4.6% actual versus -2.6% expected, -6.0% prior (revised from -5.1%)

ISM Services, December (10:00): 40.6 actual versus 37.0 expected, 37.3 prior

January 8 - Thursday

1/03 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): 467K actual versus 555K expected, 491K prior (revised from 492K)

Consumer Credit, November (2:00): -$7.9B actual versus $0.0B expected, -$2.8B prior (revised from -$3.5B)

January 9 - Friday

December Average Workweek (8:30): 33.5 expected, 33.5 prior

Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior

Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): -500K expected, -533K prior

Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 7.0% expected, 6.7%

Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): -0.9% expected, -1.1% prior