五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:期铜期银紧随期油跃跃欲试 -- 子玉

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家园 beware of rollover penalty

when futures prices are in contango

1.when the longs cannot take delivery, the shorts can push price down to any level

2.when the futures prices are in contango, the longs take loss every time they roll over contracts forward

This is happening with WTI futures, it hurts people that long oil contracts directly, or vehicles holding these contracts (ETFs like UCO, USO). The longs keep losing money even when the spot price is not moving down.

I think this is one major reason why oil price and bullion price diverged so much recently. The root case is that bullion longs can take delivery while most oil longs cannot.

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