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家园 G20应该把人民币加入SDR了吧

The basket composition is reviewed every five years to ensure that it reflects the relative importance of currencies in the world's trading and financial systems. In the most recent review in November 2005, the weights of the currencies in the SDR basket were revised based on the value of the exports of goods and services and the amount of reserves denominated in the respective currencies which were held by other members of the IMF. These changes became effective on January 1, 2006. The next review by the Executive Board will take place in late 2010.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.HTM

With effect from January 1, 2006, the IMF has determined that the four currencies that meet both selection criteria for inclusion in the SDR valuation basket will be assigned the following weights based on their roles in international trade and finance: U.S. dollar (44 percent), euro (34 percent), Japanese yen (11 percent), and pound sterling (11 percent).

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2005/pr05265.htm

SDR每五年定一次篮子比例。按照出口和劳务输出,中国不在里边说不过去。人民币不在蓝子里,是应为人民币以前不尿IMF这个壶。现在世界人民都要求中国担负经济复苏的责任了,自然要求中国为IMF提供资金,中国也考虑为IMF提供资金。

http://cn.reuters.com/article/chinaNews/idCNChina-4031820090323

就中国现在的实力,如果中国加入IMF机制,SDR篮子中人民币比例应该高于英镑和日元。SDR篮子比例不应该只以出口额来计算,而且还应该加上净债权额和净债务额的权重。

中国是可以要价的。非洲国家宁愿要中国投资不要IMF投资,东南亚人民币也有人民币区域化趋势,是让人民币在IMF体制外发展还是改革IMF体制纳入人民币?中国有IMF体制外发展的手段,进入IMF的要价就得高。不能像WTO那样权利义务不对称,进了去还被征反倾销税。

IMF要改革,不能成为美元秩序的工具,否则人民币还是在IMF体制外发展算了。美国不是要求人民币升值吗?看看美国愿意把人民币在SDR篮子里的比重能安排到多高,就知道人民币升值是否权责对称了。

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