主题:【原创】讲讲我对工厂高层的看法 -- wqnsihs
这觉得这话可能不大对,很多决策本身就是一个艰难的决策,决策的后果可能是一个概率事件,可是你又必须做出决策。一个外交家、政治家能做的也只有两个:一是尽最大可能使出现好的结果的概率最大;二是在让尽可能多的人对决策的过程或者说程序满意,这样即使出现了不好的结果,大家也能够接受。
美国前财长rubin在哈佛演讲有这么一段话:
From the guidance of this gentle professor, and from all my other experience at Harvard, I developed in the core of my being the view that there are no provable absolutes, and that, with the absence of provable certainty, all decisions are about probabilities - that is, all decisions are about the respective probabilities, of each of a number of possible outcomes actually occurring. Moreover, recognizing that all decisions are about probabilities rather than certainties should lead us to uncover and engage with the full array of complexities around making the best decisions.
- 相关回复 上下关系8
压缩 7 层
🙂这是不是必须付的代价呢?有没有别的更好的路? 月色溶溶 字0 2009-08-12 20:38:45
🙂我记得看过一本书,说外交家不说不知道结果 5 wqnsihs 字164 2009-08-12 20:54:34
🙂逍遥派已阅。花枝 子玉 字0 2009-08-15 14:49:59
🙂外交家不说不知道结果的话,政治家不做不知道结果的事情
🙂咱们说好说歹其实都保不了准,客观定论留给后人评说吧。 2 afdsjl 字525 2009-08-13 03:42:11
🙂play the fair game 2 parishg 字648 2009-08-12 22:11:16
🙂very emotional comments 5 parishg 字1143 2009-08-12 21:59:31
🙂屁股问题,在z的手里金融业有了大发展,然而老国企大批破产 9 reed 字274 2009-08-12 21:14:02