主题：花47刀买的每月ETF投资建议，这是最新一期 -- 一直在混

　　THE RECESSION’S OVER –

　　WHERE WILL THE MONEY GO?

　　Wow… That’s the only word to describe the roll the stock market’s on. We’re now into the sixth straight month of unbelievable gains. The S&P 500’s up 57% from the March low.

　　What makes this rally so unbelievable is the absence of a significant correction. And forget about a retest of the lows… this market’s on fire.

　　But the rally hasn’t made a believer out of everyone. Some people still insist the rally is going to fail and the market is headed lower.

　　And I couldn’t be happier.

　　I’ll start to worry once all of the bears give up and throw in with the bulls. But as long as there are people who think the market’s going down, I’m staying bullish.

　　The main reason I’m so optimistic is because the early stages of new bull markets look just like this one. That’s to say the market started to rally without supporting fundamentals.

　　But we’re nearing a point where we’re going to need fundamental improvement to support higher stock prices.

　　But when do we reach that point?

　　Let’s start by looking at where we’ve come from.

　　The last six months of stock market gains have been fueled by a few key components.

　　First off, say what you will about government meddling in the free market (I’m usually not a fan), but their actions saved our financial system from collapsing. I can’t imagine where we’d be today if more financial firms were allowed to go the way of Lehman Brothers.

　　Then came our first clue the economy wouldn’t freefall into the abyss. I’m talking about ‘less bad’ and ‘better than expected’ economic data. GDP wasn’t contracting as much as everyone feared. The housing market began to stabilize. And, retail sales showed resilience.

　　However, the most important ingredient to keep the rally going has been better than expected Q2 earnings. It didn’t seem to matter rock bottom analysts’ estimates and cost cutting measures were behind the upside surprises.

　　The next big hurdle will come from the Q3 earnings that are just around the corner. Here’s want I want to see in the Q3 earnings…

　　Earnings improvement that doesn’t come from cutting costs. Cost cutting can’t grow earnings forever. A return to revenue growth will signal sustainable earnings improvement.

　　Anything less will probably cause the rally to stall and set the market up for a big correction. But until we see the Q3 earnings, I don’t see anything standing in the way of this rally.

　　TRADE ALERT 1: THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS

　　Don’t look now but the gaming industry is making a comeback. Not that it was ever really gone. Although investors had good reason to think the industry was in for a major shakeup. Gaming companies can’t make money if there’s no one at the tables.

　　But the industry has weathered the worst of the economic storm better than many expected. Thanks in large part to cost cutting.

　　A closer look at the industry reveals it’s composed of a wide range of companies. It encompasses everything from hotel/resort casinos, to lottery operators, to the manufacturers of slot machines.

　　The one thing they all have in common is they need people willing to gamble. In other words, it’s dependent upon discretionary income. And when the economy took a turn for the worse, lots of people quit gambling and traveling.

　　Now we’re seeing people start to travel and spend money again. Just look at the success of discount travel provider Priceline.com (PCLN). Their stock is up 120% this year on increased demand for leisure travel.

　　The industry also faced another major issue. Many of the hotel and casino operators are highly leveraged. Investors feared many of them wouldn’t be able to service their debt or find new financing.

　　Now the financial markets have started to thaw. We’re seeing companies raise capital and extend or exchange debt. It’s giving these companies much needed breathing room.

　　The extra time they’ve bought will keep them going as the economy recovers. And as the economy recovers, people will start vacationing and spending money again.

　　Macro/Economic Trend: Growing Middle Class

　　The best thing the gaming industry has going for it is the growing middle class in developing countries. Rapid growth in these countries is creating more people with money to spend.

　　To add fuel to the fire, many of the fastest growing middle class populations are in Asia. And gambling is an inherent part of many Asian cultures.

　　It’s a perfect combination with explosive profit potential.

　　It’s paving the way for growing gambling destinations like Macau. But many of the legalized gambling markets remain undeveloped. As the economy recovers, I’m expecting the major players to rollout growth plans for these markets.

　　But it’s not all about hotels and casinos.

　　Online gambling is a major contributor to the industry’s growth. Again, Asia’s new middle class is the fuel. The number of people online in China tops 300 million. That’s more than the entire US population!

　　The bottom line is the gaming industry is growing worldwide. Better economic conditions are going to revive business in developed markets. And, Asia’s growing middle class will fuel unprecedented growth in the industry.

　　We’ve found an ETF uniquely focused on the gaming industry. It’s the Market Vectors Gaming ETF (BJK).

　　Fundamentals: A closer look at BJK

　　BJK holds 50 gaming industry stocks. The companies come from 13 different countries. It includes small, medium, and large cap stocks in casinos, race tracks, sports books, and tech.

　　Its expense ratio is 0.7%.

　　The top five holdings and percentage weights for BJK are –

　　Company Name

　　Ticker

　　% Weight

　　International Game Tech

　　IGT

　　8.7%

　　OPAP

　　OPAP

　　6.9%

　　Las Vegas Sands

　　LVS

　　6.6%

　　Wynn Resorts

　　WYNN

　　5.8%

　　Genting Berhad

　　GENT

　　5.3%

　　Over the last month, institutional holdings are on the rise. Remember, the big money can really make an industry move. Right now they’re piling into gaming stocks. That can only mean good things for the industry.

　　Technicals: The charts lead the way

　　Take a look at the chart of BJK below.

　　We’re buying BJK on a ‘breakout’. You can see BJK recently broke through resistance at $24. It’s held above this level for four consecutive days. And as you know, once a resistance level’s been broken, it becomes a support level. This should provide a good low risk and high reward entry point.

　　The recent breakout continues the uptrend in place since July. And, increasing relative strength confirms institutional players are moving into the industry.

　　Trade Alert

　　Buy: Market Vectors Gaming ETF (BJK) up to $27.00

　　Recent Price: $25.58

　　Price Target: $38.00

　　Stop Loss: $18.50

　　Remember: BJK just broke through resistance around $24 on increasing institutional ownership. I think the recovery in gaming stocks has huge potential. But they’re also subject to a high level of volatility. I’m giving this trade a little more wiggle room than normal. But I’m also expecting a much bigger return.