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How do I know China wrecked the Copenhagen deal? I was in the room

--神译版

劳资tmd怎么知道哥本哈根闹剧崩盘都是土鳖的错？劳资就在现场！

原创修正神译版：

劳资马勒戈壁怎么知道写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都闹剧崩盘都是种花国的错？劳资就在现场！

先看原文：

As recriminations fly post-Copenhagen, one writer offers a fly-on-the-wall account of how talks failed

Mark Lynas

Copenhagen was a disaster. That much is agreed. But the truth about what actually happened is in danger of being lost amid the spin and inevitable mutual recriminations. The truth is this: China wrecked the talks, intentionally humiliated Barack Obama, and insisted on an awful "deal" so western leaders would walk away carrying the blame. How do I know this? Because I was in the room and saw it happen.

China's strategy was simple: block the open negotiations for two weeks, and then ensure that the closed-door deal made it look as if the west had failed the world's poor once again. And sure enough, the aid agencies, civil society movements and environmental groups all took the bait. The failure was "the inevitable result of rich countries refusing adequately and fairly to shoulder their overwhelming responsibility", said Christian Aid. "Rich countries have bullied developing nations," fumed Friends of the Earth International.

All very predictable, but the complete opposite of the truth. Even George Monbiot, writing in yesterday's Guardian, made the mistake of singly blaming Obama. But I saw Obama fighting desperately to salvage a deal, and the Chinese delegate saying "no", over and over again. Monbiot even approvingly quoted the Sudanese delegate Lumumba Di-Aping, who denounced the Copenhagen accord as "a suicide pact, an incineration pact, in order to maintain the economic dominance of a few countries".

Sudan behaves at the talks as a puppet of China; one of a number of countries that relieves the Chinese delegation of having to fight its battles in open sessions. It was a perfect stitch-up. China gutted the deal behind the scenes, and then left its proxies to savage it in public.

Here's what actually went on late last Friday night, as heads of state from two dozen countries met behind closed doors. Obama was at the table for several hours, sitting between Gordon Brown and the Ethiopian prime minister, Meles Zenawi. The Danish prime minister chaired, and on his right sat Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the UN. Probably only about 50 or 60 people, including the heads of state, were in the room. I was attached to one of the delegations, whose head of state was also present for most of the time.

What I saw was profoundly shocking. The Chinese premier, Wen Jinbao, did not deign to attend the meetings personally, instead sending a second-tier official in the country's foreign ministry to sit opposite Obama himself. The diplomatic snub was obvious and brutal, as was the practical implication: several times during the session, the world's most powerful heads of state were forced to wait around as the Chinese delegate went off to make telephone calls to his "superiors".

Shifting the blame

To those who would blame Obama and rich countries in general, know this: it was China's representative who insisted that industrialised country targets, previously agreed as an 80% cut by 2050, be taken out of the deal. "Why can't we even mention our own targets?" demanded a furious Angela Merkel. Australia's prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was annoyed enough to bang his microphone. Brazil's representative too pointed out the illogicality of China's position. Why should rich countries not announce even this unilateral cut? The Chinese delegate said no, and I watched, aghast, as Merkel threw up her hands in despair and conceded the point. Now we know why – because China bet, correctly, that Obama would get the blame for the Copenhagen accord's lack of ambition.

China, backed at times by India, then proceeded to take out all the numbers that mattered. A 2020 peaking year in global emissions, essential to restrain temperatures to 2C, was removed and replaced by woolly language suggesting that emissions should peak "as soon as possible". The long-term target, of global 50% cuts by 2050, was also excised. No one else, perhaps with the exceptions of India and Saudi Arabia, wanted this to happen. I am certain that had the Chinese not been in the room, we would have left Copenhagen with a deal that had environmentalists popping champagne corks popping in every corner of the world.

Strong position

So how did China manage to pull off this coup? First, it was in an extremely strong negotiating position. China didn't need a deal. As one developing country foreign minister said to me: "The Athenians had nothing to offer to the Spartans." On the other hand, western leaders in particular – but also presidents Lula of Brazil, Zuma of South Africa, Calderón of Mexico and many others – were desperate for a positive outcome. Obama needed a strong deal perhaps more than anyone. The US had confirmed the offer of $100bn to developing countries for adaptation, put serious cuts on the table for the first time (17% below 2005 levels by 2020), and was obviously prepared to up its offer.

Above all, Obama needed to be able to demonstrate to the Senate that he could deliver China in any global climate regulation framework, so conservative senators could not argue that US carbon cuts would further advantage Chinese industry. With midterm elections looming, Obama and his staff also knew that Copenhagen would be probably their only opportunity to go to climate change talks with a strong mandate. This further strengthened China's negotiating hand, as did the complete lack of civil society political pressure on either China or India. Campaign groups never blame developing countries for failure; this is an iron rule that is never broken. The Indians, in particular, have become past masters at co-opting the language of equity ("equal rights to the atmosphere") in the service of planetary suicide – and leftish campaigners and commentators are hoist with their own petard.

With the deal gutted, the heads of state session concluded with a final battle as the Chinese delegate insisted on removing the 1.5C target so beloved of the small island states and low-lying nations who have most to lose from rising seas. President Nasheed of the Maldives, supported by Brown, fought valiantly to save this crucial number. "How can you ask my country to go extinct?" demanded Nasheed. The Chinese delegate feigned great offence – and the number stayed, but surrounded by language which makes it all but meaningless. The deed was done.

China's game

All this raises the question: what is China's game? Why did China, in the words of a UK-based analyst who also spent hours in heads of state meetings, "not only reject targets for itself, but also refuse to allow any other country to take on binding targets?" The analyst, who has attended climate conferences for more than 15 years, concludes that China wants to weaken the climate regulation regime now "in order to avoid the risk that it might be called on to be more ambitious in a few years' time".

This does not mean China is not serious about global warming. It is strong in both the wind and solar industries. But China's growth, and growing global political and economic dominance, is based largely on cheap coal. China knows it is becoming an uncontested superpower; indeed its newfound muscular confidence was on striking display in Copenhagen. Its coal-based economy doubles every decade, and its power increases commensurately. Its leadership will not alter this magic formula unless they absolutely have to.

Copenhagen was much worse than just another bad deal, because it illustrated a profound shift in global geopolitics. This is fast becoming China's century, yet its leadership has displayed that multilateral environmental governance is not only not a priority, but is viewed as a hindrance to the new superpower's freedom of action. I left Copenhagen more despondent than I have felt in a long time. After all the hope and all the hype, the mobilisation of thousands, a wave of optimism crashed against the rock of global power politics, fell back, and drained away.

原创修正神译版：

大多数人都同意，写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都的闹剧就tmd是个杯具。但是这个杯具的真实模样，眼下正有迷失在扯淡和口水战中的危险。事实上，是万恶的种花国让闹剧杯具了，万恶的种花国不但有意让黑奸丢人现眼，而且还坚持扯淡无极限的所谓“交易”，好把责任推到西方统领们头上。哥为啥知道真相？因为哥就在现场亲眼见证了杯具的诞生。

种花国的战略很简单：首先阻滞公开协商两周，然后在秘密会谈中制造一副西方怪叔叔们再次菊爆了世界上三分之二的广大穷苦妹抖们的假象。显然，援助中介、社会活动组织以及环保人士都上了种花国的当。这次杯具被一再描绘成所谓“由于富国拒绝承担他们对全球环境问题所应付的主要责任，所以不可避免地失败了。”（不明真相的“基督徒援助组织”语）。而愤怒又不明真相的国际地球之友组织则声称“擦，黄世仁又欺负杨白劳了。”

这一切都是预料中的陈词滥调，但是它们与事实严重不符。就连昨天在卫报上爬格子的George Monbiot同学也上当受骗了。把一切责任都推到黑奸头上。但是哥分明亲眼见证了黑奸发动班哉 硬着头皮把管子都撸粗了 冲锋，绝望地试图挽救一项协议，但是很不幸地遇到了来自种花国代表团不断重复的一个简单单词：NO! Monbiot同学甚至还赞许地引述 新奥尔良烤翅关我毛事国代表Lumumba Di-Aping同学的话，后者宣称写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都协定是“自杀协定，燃烧协定，好维持某几个国家在全球经济中的统治地位。”

新奥尔良烤翅关我毛事国 在这次闹剧上压根就是种花国门前一条狗，蹲在种花国家门口，还是种花国指谁就咬谁，让咬几口就几口的那种。在第一阶段的公开协商中，种花国自己躲在幕后，放出这帮豢养的狗腿子们在明面上打头阵。这tmd还真是种花国的好算计：自己在后台遥控指挥，而让这帮狗腿子们在舞台上对协议大肆攻击。

上周五晚间（按：12月18日）24国统领们关起门来扯淡。在这次口水大会上，黑奸的座位在约翰表兄家的统领布朗和埃塞俄比亚黑妹仔的统领Meles Zenawi之间。写童话的兄弟死了童话才出名国统领作为主席，右手边是代表居委会的祖宗国的棒子潘基文。包括各大统领在内，出席会议的大概只有50~60人。哥当时是某国代表团的随员，基本整个会议过程中该国统领都列席了。

哥所见真是令人震惊。种花国影帝完全不给面子，自己没出席不说，还在种花国外交部里找了个次级官员坐在黑奸对面，嚣张的潜台词明摆着：劳资就tmd不陪你们玩你们打算咋的吧？更令人发指的是，在会谈中各大统领还不得不经常性地暂停会议进程，因为种花国代表团的小角色们卧槽泥马马勒戈壁常常声称要去“请示上级”，然后暂时退席。

转移责任

哥想告诉那些谴责黑奸和欧洲的欧娇撒麻们的粪青们，爸爸也好欧洲的欧娇撒麻们也好此前已经吐血大清仓跳楼大甩卖提出至2050年减排80%的目标，而正是种花国代表坚持把这一目标踢出协定。汉斯国大统领龙骑兵的优秀代表墨大嫂当即怒吼：“擦，老娘为啥不能提自家的目标？”袋鼠国大统领陆克文则在一边郁闷地用手雷敲桌子（译者按：嗯，当年赫鲁晓夫用皮鞋敲桌子，前几年种花国代表用名牌表敲桌子，那都是啥啥啥的象征……）。桑巴国代表严正指出种花国你的立场完全没有逻辑性：为啥爸爸也好欧洲的欧娇撒麻们也好甚至不能提单方面减排目标？万恶的种花国代表只说了一个字“No”，然后我惊骇地发现墨大嫂绝望地被迫对种花国让步。现在我们知道为啥种花国如此有恃无恐：因为种花国押宝黑奸将为协议没有内涵背黑锅——他们赌对了。

在三锅不时的支援下，种花国一个接一个地踢掉了所有相关指标。原来所谓全球碳排放将在2020年达到顶峰，届时控制气温升高在2度的条文被彻底抹掉，换成了不咸不淡的“尽快使全球碳排放到达峰值”。至于2050年全球碳排放减半的长期目标也被种花国直接拖出午门斩首了。大概除了三锅和人家戴着纱布才不是怕日呢国那帮不普世价值的富翁们外没有人对这一结果感到喜闻乐见。哥敢肯定如果种花国不在场，我们本可以达成一项让全世界所有人开香槟庆祝的协定（译者按：俺也不知道，怎么给广大的亚非拉第三世界受苦受难的人民分香槟，对于很多人来说，大概还要解释香槟是tmd什么个玩意儿。）

坚定立场

种花国是如何大获全胜的？首先，种花国的立场非常坚定。万恶的种花国根本不需要一项交易。一位整个写成77国念成130国集团的外长私下对我这样形容：“雅典人和斯巴达人之间没啥好谈的。”另一方面，爸爸也好欧洲的欧娇撒麻们也好的统领们——以及小弟桑巴国统领撸啦、钻石国统领祖玛、玉米国统领卡尔德隆等——则不顾一切地希望在写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都闹剧中获得收获。或许黑奸比任何人都需要一份强有力的协定。 普世价值的明灯伟大的迷离奸合众国已经确认将对整个写成77国念成130国集团提供1000亿美元的慷慨援助（译者按：看什么看，够大家买棺材了吧？）用于实施减排。此外，伟大的迷离奸合众国还首次严正声明减排（2020年在2005年基础上减排17%），且显然准备提高这一份额。

但是，在此之前，黑奸必须说服迷离奸合众国元老院能把种花国塞进一个全球气候规章框架中去，这样才能往那些嚷嚷着迷离奸合众国减少碳排将进一步促进种花国工业发展的保守派元老们的嘴里塞抹布。鉴于中期选举在即，黑奸和参谋们知道写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都闹剧会或许将是他们唯一一次能在元老院多数支持下进行的气候谈判（按：一般规律，中期选举中执政党将失去参议院也即元老院的多数席位）。这一点无疑加强了种花国在会谈中的优势地位。不言自明，这是因为种花国和三锅国内都没有政治压力。根据跳蛋的惯例，跳蛋的竞选集团永远不会将会谈失败的责任归结到整个写成77国念成130国集团头上。尤其是三锅，居然在我们这个行星自杀的问题上就“公正”这个词的解释玩起了文字游戏（所谓“在大气层有平等权力”），更别提三锅国内的左翼竞选势力和评论家们还在不遗余力地提供炮弹。

在统领谈判的最后，爸爸和欧洲的欧娇撒麻们统领——以及他们的小弟们和万恶的种花国代表团展开了最后的大决战。万恶的种花国坚持抹掉1.5摄氏度的升温上限，这个上限无疑受到小岛国和低地国家们的欢迎——海平面上涨对他们威胁最大。小弟马尔代夫总统纳希德同学在前日不落帝国现任统领布朗同学的支持下，向种花国发动了决死的攻击，试图保留这一数字。纳希德同学悲愤地问道：“我说你咋能让我们无路可走？”这次攻击看起来倒的确像对万恶的种花国造成了影响，从而留下了这个数字。但是最后的文字使得这一保留毫无意义。然后，铁板钉钉了。

种花国的意图

这一切都引发了一个问题：tmd种花国到底想干什么？为毛万恶的种花国如在场的前日不落帝国砖家所形容的那样“不但自己拒绝提出目标，还不让其他国家提各自的目标”？这位已经有参与气候会议经验15年丰富经验的砖家认为种花国的目的在于削弱气候规章体制，“从而避免这一体制在未来几年内更加有力”。

这倒不是说种花国对全球变暖漠不关心。种花国的风力发电和太阳能发电工业都挺强。但是另一方面，种花国的经济增长、以及其在世界范围内日益增长的政治经济地位，在很大程度上都依赖于便宜的煤炭。种花国心知肚明如今已经成长为一个无可争议的霸权，本次写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都闹剧上的惊人表现就是实力的明证。以煤炭为基础的经济以每十年两倍的高速发展，同时的实力也在同步发展。除非绝对必要，种花国的统领们绝不会放弃这一魔术般的方式。

写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都闹剧比一个单纯的烂交易更为糟糕，因为这次闹剧宣布了世界地缘政治形势的一次巨大变化（译者按：这可真是老牌帝国主义对于昔日荣光不复的哀鸣）。如今，21世纪正迅速变成种花国的世纪（那个19世纪后一直被群P药渍得满身白浊液和排泄物整整100多年的东方痴汉，如今终于由受转攻一柱擎天，左手皮鞭尖刺项圈，右手蜡烛三角木马哦呵呵呵呵呵呵地回到了国际舞台）

种花国的统领们则表示关于环境的多边管理不仅是一种优先权，更被视为对这一新兴霸权自由行动的阻碍。离开写童话的兄弟死了才出名国的京都时，哥比以往更为沮丧。被所有希望和鼓动卷起的乐观和希望的巨浪，在迎头撞上了世界政治实力的巨石之后，退潮枯竭了。