主题：关于房子 -- MRandson

its historical peak.

Global Employment has reached its global historical peak.

Overcapacity has reached its peak.

US trade deficit=power money for global trade=source of global trade/production boom. Now US is narrowing its trade deficit with the outside world. Any human being should understand the implication of this narrowing deficit.

We are at the stage of 1929 and destruction of productive capacity in one big nation (or one continent) can solve this problem.

Another path is technological innovation which creates new global demand and brings us into another business cycle.

At this stage, I think the 1st one is more probable. We might see lots of new "-ism", like Facism, Protectionism, Socialism... -Ism is the veil, economic reason is the face.

Societies with less external market exposure (lesson from Japan/Germany before WWII vs. France), better social safety net(Canada/UK), more benign government, more controllable inflation(note--inflation is inevitable) will be more immune to the large-scale social turmoil/radical idea or civil war.

They survive.

Wise politicians need to understand that war is like drug--it temporarily distracted domestic attention and made your countrymen "high", but it hurts in the long run with UNPREDICTABLE outcomes: fiscal collapse, inflation, financial system turmoil, civil war and anarchy. Russia/Germany/France/Turkey in 1910s are good example.

Safety net in China is too late to rebuild. The work should have started as early as 2005.

In sum, Won sucks. If Zhu were still there, the mess would not run out of hand as in 2010.