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主题:【原创】新年政治经济展望之二:中美博弈(一) -- 井底望天

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家园 thanks. You are right

ST reflects liquidity or panic level, long-term 10-year is widely used in loan contract and also reflects inflation expectation.

The current Germany-US spread difference is 40bp. US 10-year bond has its best performance in Nov when the difference at that time was only about 1bp. 10-year data are consistent with your deteriorating argument.

Actually, Germany is the not the best one. Switzerland's 10-year gov. bond yield is only 2.42. Canadian yield is very close to the American one. US/Canada are worse AAA nations.

UK bond indicates that UK gov. will be downgraded for sure. UK shall fall before America.

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