五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:各位: 最近呀,那个人口问题讨论得很热烈 -- 副将

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家园 It's way too conservative

to assume that life span will be only 75 by 2040. If my memory serves me right, I think right now the number should be 78; and by 2040, likely it is going to reach 85. In that case, your estimation of death doll per year will be halved to around 23 million, which isn't out of the range at all.

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