主题：【原创】《李锅34》 丰田神话（一） -- 本嘉明

very vivid...

http://www.ccthere.com/article/2706126

而英国不是步兵，是轻骑兵，在德法方阵的身后心神不定地逡巡，如果欧洲联军能胜，当然奋勇出击，不然就先逃之夭夭。

^-^ you really capture the essence of the British treachery...

Only people who lived in Europe before can understand that.

从这个“U型一字长蛇阵”可以看出，西班牙的地位，太重要了。今天的欧洲联军，实际分成三部分，中军和两翼。其中左翼在2008年备受摧残，已经完全残破，惊弓之鸟，在2010年只能勉强摇旗呐喊，装装样子，真一接敌，可能一鼓即溃。所以，如果西班牙被金融狂风吹散阵形，美国骑兵随后跟进，就把尚存战斗力的欧洲中军和右翼分割包围，

所以不论在2008，2010，美国要完胜欧洲，击破西班牙是必要的，....因为西班牙至今都没有强大到令美国要绕过它。时至今日，欧洲联军仍是疲惫脆弱，岌岌可危的，防线上漏洞百出。

--Actually the Greek crisis was partially created by the American hedge funds. Greece is the worst egg: with poor budget deficit (12.7%) AS WELL AS HIGH DEBT ratio (125%); P and S are much better on the 2nd measure. In last 3 months, CDS betters on Greek bonds have easily earned 300% return.

Gov. bond is very hard to short. CDS is a much better WMD now--it is even anonymous--nobody knows who trully hold those contracts.

Spain is too large to rescue and too important to ignore for Euroland. But this battle is tough because its debt/GDP is only about 45%, even lower than USA. US debt/GDP ratio is climbing fast. It is lucky since it still has no refinancing problem because of two biggest bagholders called Japan and China.

--In sum, hedge funds need to stir up some domestic trouble for Spain and Portugal to create a gov. debt refinancing problem. If Spain cuts deficit dramatically, it would create social turmoil and scare investors; if it does not cut its 9% gov. deficit, it would still propaganded by English media to be a horrible borrowers and thus scare away large funds (anyway, it is anglo-saxon media that controls the finance community).

It is a life between rock and a hard place.

US treasury notes lock the boats of Japan/China/US and some middle-east ones in one camp. Despite all the Chinese denial, in effect, it is a G2 battle against this EU U-shape army.

Any rational people should have already figured out the outcome.