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主题:【原创】希腊危机对欧洲未来的影响 -- 晨枫

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家园 有人在骂德国,欧元的设立就注定了南欧的失败。

http://mpettis.com/2010/05/are-you-ready-for-the-united-states-of-germany/

Blame Germany

Critics of Germany will argue that this moralistic posturing is thoroughly misplaced. European monetary policy, which was driven largely by Germany, was incompatible with German trade and labor policies that effectively suppressed German consumption, forced a large trade surplus onto its neighbors, and together made a southern European debt crisis almost inevitable.

The strong euro and burgeoning liquidity it brought on meant that much of Germany’s trade surplus had to be absorbed within the eurozone, forcing especially southern Europe into high trade deficits. These deficits were dismissed, very foolishly it turns out, and against all historical precedents, as being easily managed as long as the sanctity of the euro was maintained. A very false analogy was made with the US, in which it was argued that because European countries all use the same currency, trade imbalances within Europe are sustainable in the same way they are sustainable between states in the US.

But states in the US are not like states in Europe. Labor and capital mobility in Europe is very low compared to the US, and the Civil War in the US ensured that sovereignty, including most importantly fiscal sovereignty, resided in Washington DC, and not in the various state capitals. The US is clearly as much an optimal currency zone as any large economy can be.

德国的贸易盈余(surplus)必然是南欧各国的贸易赤字,南欧无法货币贬值,所以南欧的财政失败是必然的。

似乎德国人现在很不高兴,但他们也处于跟中国类似的处境,就是贸易顺差太大了。

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