主题：2012 大选周记 之一 -- 切地雷

America. If China's CURRENT political censorship/social/economic/labor practice replaced the U.S. model to become No.1 in the world, the whole world will turn into dark ages.

Even the Chinese elites, in politics, entertainment, business, finance,etc., are fleeing en masse now to US and Canada. So you overestimate China's capability. 满则必损。 The peak of boom is already the starting point of the decline.

China has a large bank bad debt problem down the road. The fake boom created by gov. intervention and some imprudent bank lending will all come to hurt the banks down the road. Now the nonperforming ratio in the banking system is so low at 1% (even Canadian banking system has a bit higher ratio, you know Canadian regulators are much more professional than their Chinese counterparts), but I know for sure that this 1% is a joke and down the road, we will see another wave of bad loans. To be frank, in mid-1990s, after the real estate bubble burst, it once reached 40% in China. According to World Bank OFFICIAL DATA (data offered to WB by the China gov., not mentioned in domestic Chinese media), its nonperforming loan ratio was as high as 29.1% even in 2001.

如果中国能用牺牲所有的美元资产为代价取得人民币的世界货币地位

Buddy, you must be an IT specialist. You are kidding here. If reserve assets is worthless, RMB WILL SUFFER A BIG loss in credibility in the first wave. RMB is just USD and USD is RMB. The RMB credit expansion in 2000s WAS SUPPORTED BY INCREASE IN USD RESERVES.

HOW CAN ANY RATIONAL PEOPLE HIT THEMSELVES BY DESTROYING THEIR OWN CURRENCY?

你把事情想的太简单了。RMB has no hope to become a trustworthy reserve currency before 2030, because China will soon have banking problem and it will repeat 1990s: then down the road China will need another 10 years to clean up the mess.

FYI, during the 2007-2009 crisis, the U.S. banking system's nonperforming loan ratio peaked at 5.4%. It is now declining slowly. So unless politicians play fire again with fiscal cliff, up till now, the peak of crisis is over for America. America will need 10 years of modest inflation to inflate away lots of problems.