五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】有一种骗局叫做方舟子--揭穿方舟子的伪装 -- 思想的行者

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家园 不是概率论

是统计学,学科都搞错,你还是别提这个了,上次在淡山客河友的挺转反转那座楼里,有一篇入门的p Value的介绍,还是不错的,因为你连学科都弄错,所以估计你也看不懂那篇文章,链接我就懒得找了。

鉴于你缺乏这方面的基础知识,再从这个角度谈也没意义,那就换个角度吧,你似乎挺认Peters的,就从他开始吧:

外链出处

摘几句吧:

By telephone last week, Peters called the results of the pilot at Beaumont "mixed."

"We knew there could be complications going in," he said, "but it was still frustrating."

Peters: "Do the benefits outweigh the risks? I'm not ready to say that. It's very easy to be wowed by it. I was wowed in China when I saw Dr. Xiao's data. I'm still wowed, but my 'wow' is a little more tempered."

你觉得他的说法象是有87%成功率的底气吗?

教主,挺肖不是一件容易的事啊!

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