主题：两难的道路越来越狭窄 -- zhuhit

过去的model都是基于exponential growth。但是这些都要崩溃，人口会崩溃，经济会崩溃，经济理论会崩溃，货币单位会崩溃，坐标和结构都要崩溃。

An example featuring mammals is provided by the reindeer of St. Matthew Island, in the Bering Sea (Klein, 1968). This island had a mat of lichens more than four inches deep, but no reindeer until 1944, when a herd of 29 was introduced. By 1957 the population had increased to 1,350; and by 1963 it was 6,000. But the lichens were gone, and the next winter the herd died off. Come spring, only 41 females and one apparently dysfunctional male were left alive .

Seneca cliff，崩溃的速度比积累快。

怎么办？model要变，应该换坐标，换度量结构。从美元变成能源，根据Energy returned on energy invested，根据Hubbert model，构建能量预算体系。这是中国的机会。

未来的能源终将到顶。

根据能量预算行事的国家，即使不能避免衰落的命运，至少可以选择走bell curve，而不是Seneca cliff。运气好，可以获得新的平衡。但是这一切要以牺牲其他低熵体为代价的。