主题：【原创】这才是玩钱的行家：写在QE结束之后 -- maturedpeach

It's always easier to take a larger deficit, because inflation is dead in the water, and the reason for that is, effective demand is dead in the water.

And what that essentially is, is the fact that the Federal Reserve, it is paying twenty-five basis points to the -- say, Wells Fargo, which we'll say holds deposits at the San Francisco Fed, it has got a sovereign guarantee, virtually no capital requirements, and a reasonably good rate of return for that type of security. So what do they do? They just sit there and let it sit.

what probability would you give to the Federal Reserve being able to exit these challenges without creating another financial crisis?

GREENSPAN: Well, let's leave the word "crisis" out.

TETT: OK, extreme instability or volatility.

GREENSPAN: May I -- if I can use the substitute term "turmoil"...

TETT: Turmoil. Yeah, turmoil will be good. We like turmoil.

GREENSPAN: ...I don't think it's possible.

The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I've come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time.

And the impact? Even by the Fed's sunniest calculations, aggressive QE over five years has generated only a few percentage points of U.S. growth. By contrast, experts outside the Fed, such as Mohammed El Erian at the Pimco investment firm, suggest that the Fed may have created and spent over $4 trillion for a total return of as little as 0.25% of GDP (i.e., a mere $40 billion bump in U.S. economic output). Both of those estimates indicate that QE isn't really working.