主题：【风云学会】大宗商品价格大跌是中国导致的吗？ -- 陈经

传统石油的历史发现量：

页岩油：

页岩油的操作与传统石油不同，单口井的寿命非常短，但是很容易增产（打好多的井）。我觉得页岩油不是bell curve：

而是Seneca cliff：

An example featuring mammals is provided by the reindeer of St. Matthew Island, in the Bering Sea (Klein, 1968). This island had a mat of lichens more than four inches deep, but no reindeer until 1944, when a herd of 29 was introduced. By 1957 the population had increased to 1,350; and by 1963 it was 6,000. But the lichens were gone, and the next winter the herd died off. Come spring, only 41 females and one apparently dysfunctional male were left alive .

另外，不是有句话吗？“中国人缺啥啥贵”

China monthly oil production data, 2002-2016 (mb/d)

Sources:

JODI (2002-2011);

National Bureau of Statistics of China (2012-2016)