五千年(敝帚自珍)

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家园 你说得基本符合现有主流预测,但落后于实际

https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/01/solar-pv-costs-expected-cut-half-2020/

这个报告强调:

1. The global weighted average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of utility-scale solar PV has fallen by 73% between 2010 and 2017 to 10 cents/kWh.

2. The average cost of electricity from onshore wind fell by 23% between 2010 and 2017. Projects are now routinely commissioned at 4 cents/kWh and the global weighted average is around 6 cents/kWh.

3. By 2019, the best onshore wind and solar PV projects will be delivering electricity for an equivalent of 3 cents/kWh, or less. New bioenergy and geothermal projects commissioned in 2017 had global weighted average costs of around USD 7 cents/kWh.

4. Record low prices for solar PV in Abu Dhabi, Chile, Dubai, Mexico, Peru and Saudi Arabia have made 3 cents kWh (and below) the new benchmark.

5. By 2020, project and auction data suggest that all currently commercialised renewable power generation technologies will be competing, and even undercutting, fossil fuels by generating in the range three to 10 cents/kWh range.

到了2019年1月,底下的评论说“This price point has already been broken”

这个报告发表是2018年,做项目规划的,一般都偏保守一点。

中国政府过去几年投资超过1万亿人民币在太阳能上,动摇了石油美元。正在形势大好的时候,突然李中堂突然宣布大幅度降低对新能源的投资和补贴以及政策倾斜。

我个人坚决相信到了资本家投资太阳能就可以坐着数钱的时候,会有数不清的热钱涌向太阳能投资,这个领域的投资将重塑人类社会的整个格局。

李科长开历史的倒车。

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