五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:全球(除中国外)新冠确诊死亡数字猜想 -- 须弥一芥

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家园 所以我觉得刚开始是大瘟疫,随后更像是大号流感或大号肺炎

拉平均拉了这么久,最早爆发的纽约和新泽西的百万人口死亡数,至今仍超全美平均(一千两百多)的近一倍,早前更高,而后起之秀病例大户的加州,德州和佛州,百万人口死亡数尚在全美平均之下,所以我觉得当时纽约和新泽西是大瘟疫,其它地方不是。

随便搜索,美国2018-19流感季,患病3千5百万,上医院一千六百万,住院近50万,挂了3.4万。2017年肺炎1.3百万急诊,挂了约5万,这还是在大量预防疫苗的情况下,我印象平常美国打疫苗很积极的。新冠没疫苗,目前死亡42万多,从数量级对比来看,新冠对美国多数地区更像是大号流感+大号肺炎,今后变种如何发展那就不晓得了。

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.

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In the United States, 1.3 million people were diagnosed with pneumonia in an emergency department during 2017. Unfortunately, about 50,000 people die from the disease each year in the United States. Most of the people affected by pneumonia in the United

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