主题：【原创】顽强的阻击 -- 大众河蟹

Here is my solution:

Short term if China has the copper then use the strategic reserve to make the delivery. By doing this you flood the market with copper in a very short period and this will cause the copper to plunge. Anyway copper is already due for a correction. This will flush the short term speculators out and you can buy back your copper gradually and slowly. If China doesn't have the copper, then bite the bullet cover your shorts and take your loss. Since all the short term buyers are already in the market, there is no buyer left except China who needs to buy to cover. Once china's short position is cleared, short term speculator will take profits and as there is no buyer left copper will drop. This will trigger the stop loss and cause copper to drop even further.

However none of these will change the long term supply/demand picture. Sooner or later copper will start to rise again. Unless China change its export oriented, growth at any cost economic policy, you have no choice but to be squeezed in the resource market. China's manufacturing industry is vastly over capacity.The cutting throat competation only makes things even worse. Say you have 100 manufacturers that produce products using copper as raw material. Actually there is only enough demand for five of them. You don't have pricing power for your products and your costs are going straight up. What do you do? Then you expand your capacity even further hoping you can gain enough volume to survie. Well all the other 99 guys will do the same thing and it ends up with even more capacity and even more demand for copper. How the copper can go down?

See you and I have a basic difference in the view of market. You seem to believe you could control the price by buying and selling in the paper(future) market. I believe the long term supply/demand sets the price. The buying and selling just create noise.