主题：【原创】乱侃怪物Google的股价估价: 市值观点 -- 四月一日

The Florida deal "definitely put pressure on the broader market, and affects all the deals" in that market, Barcy says. "Everything is connected in a local market. We're seeing more weakness across the U.S. on a daily basis."

A number of home builders have said they're working to renegotiate the terms of some of their land options, in the hope of reducing purchase prices or extending the time periods in which they agreed to exercise them. If they don't reach acceptable terms, some indicate they'll walk.

Hovnanian Enterprises, which has $454 million of option deposits and letters of credit outstanding, wrote off $11.4 million of deposits in its fiscal third quarter, ended July, and expects to walk away from additional options, says CFO Sorsby.

Management told analysts it couldn't quantify the exact impact of option renegotiations until such talks conclude. Therefore, its earnings guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter ranges widely, from $1.05 a share to $1.80. Hovnanian's stock has been among the industry's strongest performers of late, up about 20%, to 30, since Aug. 14. Still, it's down more than 50% from its highs in 2005.

If home builders forfeit their option deposits, they could face additional costs. Among other things, they might have to spread the sunk costs of developing a community -- which range from architectural plans to the construction of model homes and swimming pools -- over fewer homes, one land banker explains.

There's also reputation risk. "Companies with 50 homes built don't want to walk away from [unfinished] communities. It would kill their reputations," says John Burns, president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, Calif.

Joint ventures, too, have allowed home builders to buy land, and even other builders, while keeping both the land and leverage off their balance sheets.

For example, a developer seeking to purchase a $100 million piece of land with 40% equity might put up $19.6 million, or 49% of that equity stake, with a partner contributing $20.4 million, or 51%. The JV would fund the remaining $60 million with debt, which, because the builder's equity stake is less than 50%, would not appear on the company's books. Private-equity funds have been active participants in such deals.

Lennar used a joint venture to purchase the 3,718-acre El Toro Marine base in Irvine last year, with equity partners including MSD Capital, the investment vehicle for Michael Dell; Rockpoint Group; and Blackacre Institutional Capital, the real-estate arm of Cerberus Capital Management, a hedge fund.

Hovnanian likewise used a joint venture in 2005 to acquire the assets of Town & Country Homes, a Lombard, Ill., home builder. Its equity partner: Blackstone Real Estate Advisors. Hovnanian's total investment in unconsolidated joint ventures was $217 million at the end of the July quarter, about 11% of its book value.

So far, none of the nation's top 13 home builders, save Lennar, appears to have written off equity in joint ventures. On the other hand, earnings from joint ventures have declined at some companies. Beazer's share of income from joint ventures declined to $127,000 in the June quarter, from $2.95 million a year earlier.

Some home builders guarantee the debt of their joint ventures, which could come back to bite them if market conditions worsen. Lennar, for example, guarantees $1.2 billion of debt for its JVs and enters into option contracts to buy land from them. When the builder is also the guarantor, industry insiders say, a joint venture tends to get more favorable terms from lenders. But if things unravel, the company could wind up with a lot more debt than it discloses on its balance sheet.

In a worst case, or one close to it, the home builder might opt to prop up a joint venture with additional equity financing. If its interest exceeds 50%, under accounting rules it would have to consolidate the JV, with all its liabilities, into its own operations.

Every real-estate cycle is different, and it's too soon to tell whether this one will end with a whimper or a bang -- one that rivals, and maybe exceeds, the Nasdaq's collapse in 2000. Land options and off-balance-sheet joint ventures are designed to mitigate corporate risk in the event of calamity. If market conditions worsen, however, they might provoke it.