主题：搞一个飞人推荐的股票扑周报，就当纸上炒股的周记…… -- 古狗肥腩死
家园 按照蛙跳战术来玩，早就翻倍了 戏法人人会变，各有巧妙不同，呵呵
家园 直到今天才稍微理解了蛙跳 期权到期日魔力还真是不小。然而不同strike不同expiration date的delta不好掌握啊。BSM模型的实战运用比课后习题完全不是一档次。
家园 老弟哪里去了？ 我现在有31个sections, almost 2B, ooip.
家园 hov strike $15 Jan 08 再次翻倍 心头暗喜中
多谢飞人兄的无私指点
不过，是否继续蛙跳呢？hov会否继续跌下去？
请飞人指条明路，花花花花谢
家园 这个课题很有意思 HOV是否会翘辫子？
如果会，无疑继续蛙跳可以扩大战果，Jan 08/strike 15的put价格是Jan 08/strike 10的差不多3.5倍，如果卖出前者，获得的现金可以买进3.5倍数目的后者，如果HOV真的跌到0（应该是变成pink sheet, 不会完全到零), 理论上intrinsic value 3.5x10=35，大大超过不蛙跳的15，基本上回报多一倍。
如果HOV本股跌到5元，intrinsic value 3.5x5=17.5 versus 10 (15-10)，还是蛙跳的好。
基本上只要HOV本股继续跌2.5或者以上，蛙跳的效果都应该好于不蛙跳的效果。
具体的玩法，可以套现一部分，再加倍甚至三倍买入strike 10的put，都是可以考虑的，根据自己的情况而定。
如果觉得HOV下跌空间不大，那不要说蛙跳，干脆现在就套现得了。
但是HOV事实上的麻烦还远远没有结束，现金极低，库存极高（而且估值大大偏高）的现状没有改善，所以下跌空间仍然存在，也不能排除破产的可能。
具体而言，本人的做法到目前为止已经套现了不少，早就收回成本兼有盈利了，剩下的put即使全军覆没，也影响不到本钱，所以可以继续玩蛙跳，呵呵。
外链图片需谨慎，可能会被源头改- 复 这个课题很有意思
家园 遗憾啊，踏空了 昨天把strike15的put卖了，还想等机会买strike10的，谁想到今天大跳水，错过了好大一笔钱啊，呜呜
- 复 遗憾啊，踏空了
家园 俺也是今天才跳的 倒是没踏空，可是换回来的股数就少了10%。不过只要在跌，就不必计较了，呵呵
- 复 俺也是今天才跳的
家园 今天的水跳得凶啊。可惜手上只有点HOV的put 其它的GM等飞人兄推荐的put前段时间没敢买，胆子小了点，赚不到。好在有个宝可以安慰一下。
恭喜：意外获得【西西河通宝】一枚
飞人兄，GM等现在还可以put吗？
家园 不要在大跌的当日入场卖空 今天倒是套现了一部分GM的put，以防牛气未散
PPT任务太重，今天是他们累倒了的日子，呵呵
具体而言，GM再观察吧。宁可踏空，不要买贵货呀。
家园 GDP data is out tomorrow I guess, if it's 3.2%, as expected by the market, MM might use it to allure more longs.
Actually, I am really confused by the big picture of the US economy. Could you please share with us some thoughts about US economy as a whole? is it still healthy?
I started to put HBs after I read your series of "3-digit return" posts. Many Thanks! I made good return on them.
I also put GM, BSC and DSL. Damn, I was scared by the short-squeeze on HB stocks two weeks ago, so I closed some positions early this week and missed the big sell-off this two days. I also visited the stock board on mitbbs.com. There are much more die-hard longs than here.
家园 Roubini is the best economist if you read his blogs, you will have a better understanding of the economy. I am very happy I have been following him since last fall.
家园 can't read the full articles Because of your suggestion, I have been reading his blogs for a while. Without subscription I can't read full posts, so I might miss some detailed analysis showing how he comes to his conclusion and what direction he think the economy is heading towards. Do you know how much it costs to subscribe? Also, after reading articles about how people are crazy about IPHONE, and hearing how good the job market is in Sillicon Valley, I am kind of getting a really mixed picture.
Anyway, stock markets are probably at best lagging indicators of the real economy.
家园 i am not subcribing either but the contents available to public is good enough.
It will take too much time to go through the whole economy thing, obviously a huge subject, but I trust what i read and my own analysis - so far so good. Locals are locals, IT does not represent the whole picture, if you happen to hear about how hot it is.
家园 BSC , GM 都是很好地做空对象。
家园 瞎说啊， 可能有点悬，要看大盘走向了，GM现在在近期低点上。
好消息方面：allison可能卖不出去了，credit市场收紧
坏消息方面：ford开始赚钱了。
悬而未决消息：UAW开始谈判了。