五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】巴基斯坦要是倒下…… -- 晨枫

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    • 家园 干預巴基斯坦是美國計劃之一

      就是等適當時間而已!!

      當年進侵阿富汗時,Al Qaeda 剩下的核心份子包括拉登在內,已被迫至阿巴邊境的Tora Bora內。奇怪的是美國竟會將包圍網在通向巴境一方留下缺口,好讓那些人能逃入巴境與巴基斯坦北部山區那些半獨立的閥結合?這亦是基地組織能延續下去的原因。這是疏忽?抑或有意,以便為其在中亞注兵及擴大印巴行動的借口?

      外链出处

      看看另一個不見於主流傳媒的評論

      外链出处

      • 家园 有包围网吗?

          塔利班逃跑时有几个美国大兵在阿富汗地面上?

          阿富汗那种地形要多少军队才能形成严密的包围网?

        • 家园 討論的是2001年11月杪

          當時塔利班已將亡。

          但核心的阿蓋達份子包括拉登在內已知藏在鄰近阿巴邊境的Tora Bora內。

          Tora Bora並不是大範圍。接近巴基斯坦。這些餘下的阿蓋達份子是其核心。擊破及殲滅之應該是「反恐」戰的最高目標。而這亦是最佳機會。而在美國付款的北方聯盟軍隊亦已從阿境向Tora Bora進發。

          這些核心份子的唯一生路是逃向巴基斯坦。而鄰近阿富汗山區的巴基斯坦軍閥一向都是巴基斯坦的頭痛問題。在這情況下,如果讓這些阿蓋達份子逃向巴境,只會讓他們可以死灰復燃及茁壯。

          但奇怪地當年在通向巴基斯坦那重要的峽口,並無任何美軍以完成這個包圍網。

          這些核心的阿蓋達份子包括拉登在內,就在12月初大部份徒步地「短征」向巴基斯坦出逃。

          美國事後宣稱他們不知拉登及其核心份子在那裏。但從這事後至今,漏出來的情報顯示並不是如此。美方是明確知道拉登及其死黨在Tora Bora。而拉登藏匿在此,亦不是甚麼大秘密。這是當時美國報紙的報導。

          The hunt for Osama bin Laden may be narrowing to a network of caves near the village of Tora Bora, in Afghanistan's eastern White Mountains. Mr. Bin Laden has been seen in the last four days, spending his days in caves and moving around on horseback by night, according to local intelligence reports.

          外链出处

          下面的鏈接是New York Times整理出當時的大慨情況。當然美國高層心中想甚麼,這是最大機密。但為何Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis 的請求會被拒。這是甚麼原因?

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          A number of American officers were now convinced that this was about to happen at Tora Bora, too.

          One of them was Brig. Gen. James N. Mattis, the commander of some 4,000 marines who had arrived in the Afghan theater by now. Mattis, along with another officer with whom I spoke, was convinced that with these numbers he could have surrounded and sealed off bin Laden's lair, as well as deployed troops to the most sensitive portions of the largely unpatrolled border with Pakistan. He argued strongly that he should be permitted to proceed to the Tora Bora caves. The general was turned down. An American intelligence official told me that the Bush administration later concluded that the refusal of Centcom to dispatch the marines - along with their failure to commit U.S. ground forces to Afghanistan generally - was the gravest error of the war.

          ......

          Tora Bora was the one time after the 9/11 attacks when United States operatives were confident they knew precisely where Osama bin Laden was and could have captured or killed him. Some have argued that it was Washington's last chance; others say that although it will be considerably more difficult now, bin Laden is not beyond our reach. But the stakes are considerably higher than they were nearly four years ago, and terrain and political sensibilities are far more our natural enemies now.

          • 家园 把住峡口只能挡住大部队。

              游击队是挡不住的。否则苏联也不会十年消灭不了阿富汗游击队。

      • 家园 Tora Bora本来就是在阿富汗-巴基斯坦边境上

        如果没有巴基斯坦方面的合作,怎么封起这个包围圈呢?

        • 家园 Tora Bora

          是接近邊境,但並不在邊境上。

          外链出处

          Tora Bora (Pashto: تورا بورا, “black dust” ) is a cave complex situated in the White Mountains (Safed Koh) of eastern Afghanistan ( 34°07′N, 70°13′E), in the Pachir Wa Agam District of Nangarhar province, approximately 50km west of the Khyber Pass and 10km north of the border of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.

          During the US invasion of Afghanistan it was one of the last strongholds of the Taliban. As the suspected hide-out of Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, it was the theatre in December 2001 for the Battle of Tora Bora.

          當年只要在通往巴基斯坦的路上空降特種兵。基地組織已被包了餃子。

          但美國與基地組織是symbiosis的關係,沒了Al Queda,美國再用甚麼借口在中亞駐兵?

          外链出处

      • 家园 这几年

        各国驻华武官没少去西藏军区参观,相信他们的评估报告五角大楼应该是有备份的。

    • 家园 如果巴基斯坦出现宗教内战

      中国政府肯定出手,印度政府也不会袖手旁观。可以说,亚洲地区的核战启动阀就在巴基斯坦。因此,俺估计,中国武力维和的起点在巴基斯坦。

      • 家园 中国人不会像美国北约那样把自己陷入阿富汗伊拉克

        中国政府肯定不会出兵。

        巴基斯坦已经半塔利班化了,最该着急的还是美国和北约。

        中国还犯不着去替美国人去挨炸。印度人要去就去,他们挨的近。中国有青藏高原天然屏障档着。

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